UK operators can rest easy after a neutral Budget – at least until next year.
In +More: Union agitation in the Netherlands, presidential election fever.
Health warning: Lancet report is heavy on prejudice, light on facts.
Teach: Brazil says it wants to learn from sports-integrity organizations.
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Peace – for now
Skin of their teeth: The UK Labour government’s debut Budget announcement has pulled its punches with regard to taxes on OSB and iCasino and has said it will “consult next year” on proposals to bring the three-tax structure remote gambling duties into a single tax.
“This will aim to simplify, future-proof and close loopholes in the system,” the government said in its Budget statement.
Trigger warning: The move to a consultation is contrary to the previous scare story suggesting the Labour government was looking to double the tax rate applicable on OSB and iCasino. That saw investors in the US pull the rug from under the Flutter share price in early October.
The news caused a bounce in UK-listed stocks led by Evoke, up over 9% in the wake of the news, Entain (+7%) and Rank (+7%), while Flutter gained 4.5% in early trading in New York.
Listening ears: The Betting and Gaming Council claimed the government had listened to the industry and in rejecting calls from “anti-gambling lobbyists” had “got the balance right.”
The BGC went on to say the operators would look to support the government’s “ambitious growth agenda,” which involves generating tax, jobs and investment while “continuing to support sports like horse racing.”
Not out of the woods: However, the analysts at Jefferies pointed out that any celebrations about dodging an obvious bullet might be relatively short-lived.
The team suggested the “initial relief” as expressed by the reaction in UK-facing gambling sector share prices could yet morph into a “concern” around future tax harmonization.
As the analysts added, this wording would “infer” a tax rise.
Up the ladder: As it stands, online sports betting is taxed at 15% while iCasino attracts a 21% levy. “Harmonization at the 21% level is the obvious first consideration,” said the team.
Down the slope: But they added that the government might take the opportunity to raise tax further. Jefferies’ discussions with investors has “typically landed on a 25% rate for both OSB and iCasino.”
Safe: But Investec’s analysts remained positive, suggesting that while the White Paper implementation remains “still very much pending,” the fact there were no new Budget-related negatives to be taken into account was a bonus for the sector.
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+More
Ready to go: The Irish gambling regulator will officially begin operating next year. The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland was a part of the recently approved Gambling Regulation Act.
France: Potential online casino regulation in the country will be discussed at a meeting hosted by the government with representatives from the gaming industry.
Holland Casino is calling in the trade unions to fight an upcoming tax hike. The baseline will rise from the current 30.5% to 34.2% in 2025, with a second increase in 2026 to bring the income tax up to 37.8%.
The Dutch Association of Mental Health and Addiction Care said a total ban on all online gambling advertising in the Netherlands is necessary to protect young people and those at risk of addiction. A ban on targeted advertising entered force last year, which outlaws ads on television, radio, in print and in public places.
Italy’s proposed gambling reforms require sign off from Brussels as the scope of the changes may impact the European Union IT sector, and Malta is asking for more time to review what it considers “unnecessary barriers” inside the new framework.
Macau’s newly enacted Illegal Gaming Law officially entered force on Tuesday (October 29) following its publication in the Official Gazette.
Missouri: More than $40m has been donated to the lobby group that supports the proposed sports-betting measure on next week’s ballot, according to the Springfield News-Leader.
Presidential election fever
What we’re reading: More money is expected to be wagered on the 2024 US election than the Super Bowl, but it is offshore platforms that are reaping most of the rewards. In Prediction News.
Read across: In The Token Word this week, the prediction markets are having a moment after betting momentum all but placed Donald Trump back in the White House and as the meme stock world’s favorite app, Robinhood, jumped on the bandwagon.
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Health warning
Taking a stand: The recent report from the health lobby, which suggested gambling posed a systemic threat to populations globally, has been characterized as being “primarily political and ideological” rather than being an actual research effort.
Bias: Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus, said the report from the new Lancet Public Health Committee on gambling has presented “legitimate observations” about the consequences of disordered gambling.
But he added it did so in a fashion that suggests such issues are endemic.
Pandemic: Without providing much by way of evidence, the report suggested ~450m people have at least one behavioral symptom or have experienced a harmful personal, social or health consequence of gambling.
Of those, the report team, led by Heather Wardle from the University of Glasgow, claimed 80 million suffer from disordered gambling worldwide.
Wardle, a specialist in gambling research, policy and practice, said the global growth trajectory of the industry was “phenomenal.”
“Collectively we need to wake up and take action.”
Making demands: The report calls for governments across the world to adopt "a public health approach" to gambling with the goal of "denormalising" participation in it.
It also demands a reduction in the exposure to advertising and the availability of gambling and reducing the size of the market.
Among its seven core recommendations, the committee called for a World Health Assembly to pass a resolution "on the public health dimensions of gambling.”
Known unknowns: Waugh said the report “fails to apply a critical lens to the research papers cited and cites findings on a highly selective basis.”
“Consumer benefits from gambling are largely marginalized with claims of such benefits depicted as industry lobbying,” he added.
Meanwhile, claims with regard to harm are “generally presented as ‘facts' whereas any contra-views are described as ‘industry narratives’.”
Physician heal thyself: Waugh concluded the report lacked the self-awareness to see how it is guilty of exactly the same ‘crimes’ that the health lobby often flings at the industry.
It is “the work of vested interests, lobbying, control of research, distortion of findings, agenda control and regulatory capture,” he said.
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Sports integrity – Brazil
Joining forces: The Brazilian Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) has agreed a memorandum of understanding with the leading sports data monitoring providers alongside global sports integrity organizations to set up a framework to combat match-fixing.
ACT now: Sportradar and Genius Sports, alongside the International Betting Integrity Association and the Sports Integrity Global Alliance (Siga) and Siga Latin America have each signed a Technical Cooperation Agreement (ACT) to collaborate activities focused on safeguarding the integrity of the newly regulated sports-betting and online gaming region.
The agreement with the SPA, which is part of Brazil’s Ministry of Finance, will last for an initial five years.
Regis Dudena, secretary for the SPA, said the body would be open to discussions with other organizations that work on betting integrity.
Training day: Dudena said that the Brazilian authorities were keen to leverage the expertise of the sports data and integrity organizations and “train” all involved in the identification of match-fixing and related fraud as well as in the sharing of information.
“We can and should share information so that all operators can be aware of suspicious cases,” Dudena added.
Hailing the agreement, Felippe Marchetti, manager for integrity partnerships in Brazil at Sportradar, said the company appreciated the “trust” shown by the Brazilian authorities.
“This ACT reflects a mutual commitment to establish a sustainable, regulated sports-betting industry in Brazil that is built upon a foundation of integrity,” he added.
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Events calendar
Nov 5: Gaming in Germany, Berlin
Nov 11: RG Symposium, Malta
Nov 18: Problem Gambling Prevalence webinar
Nov 27-28: Eastern European Gaming Summit, Sofia
Dec 2-4: Thai Entertainment Complex Summit, Bangkok
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