This isn’t over
Kalshi set to face continued legal battles
Further legal headwinds loom for the prediction markets provider.
In +More: Kenya’s temporary ad ban, Michigan moves.
Sega Sammy closes $148m Stakelogic deal after court fight
The paranoid style: Evolution defends its ‘just a supplier’ stance.
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Multiple fronts
This is the real quiz: Kalshi may be on a tear in court, but legal experts say the fight is just beginning. A string of looming judicial decisions, unresolved regulatory questions and potential federal challenges lie in wait for prediction market operators.
“Although Kalshi has been racking up court wins, the legal landscape is far from settled,” said gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach, founder of Wallach Legal.
Several upcoming court rulings “could dramatically alter the legal playing field surrounding prediction markets,” Wallach said in an interview with C+M this week, adding that “it makes sense to take a brief pause to see how things play out in the courts.”
The end of the beginning: The prediction market firm’s victories in Nevada and New Jersey were at the preliminary injunction stage and are now both on appeal. They have sued multiple states for the right to offer sports-based prediction markets in response to receiving cease-and-desist letters for allegedly providing illegal gambling services.
New Jersey can appeal to the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, which Wallach said “might be an elevated risk” for Kalshi given the judiciary’s history for “disfavoring sports betting.”
“We’re still early in the judicial ballgame,” Wallach said.
Two sides of the same coin: Further complicating matters is Donald Trump’s nominee to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Brian Quintenz, also holds a seat on Kalshi’s board.
Should he be appointed to lead the regulator, Quintenz may have to clarify any potential conflicts of interest, legal experts said.
Wallach said this “may complicate things, particularly if and when this issue lands in court down the road as part of an Administrative Procedure Act (APA) challenge by states and/or Native American tribes.”
Individuals and organizations can challenge the actions of federal agencies in court through the APA.
The CFTC abruptly cancelled its April 30 prediction markets roundtable, with no further explanation.
Cover me: Robert Walker, a veteran Vegas sportsbook operations executive, said the real legal vulnerability may lie with the regulator, not just the platforms. “This is my take – Kalshi, Crypto are using the CFTC for cover. I’m no lawyer,” he said.
Walker believes states should consider suing the agency itself under the APA.
He pointed to inconsistent enforcement, unexplained approvals and loss of state tax revenue as grounds for a credible challenge.
“The legal hook is there – and an APA case gets straight to the source,” he said.
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+More
New York: Las Vegas Sands may want a third party to take over its downstate New York casino bid, but the organization in Nassau County that established itself to oppose the gaming giant’s efforts isn’t going to drop its opposition to the proposals. The Say No to the Casino Civic Association has called on county officials to drop any proposal regardless of who is behind the bid.
The Isle of Man: Nicola Libreri has been appointed as deputy CEO of the Isle of Man’s Gambling Supervision Commission. Libreri has been a part of the commission since 2018 and recently oversaw the body’s newly created anti-money laundering and compliance division.
Kenya’s Betting Control and Licensing Board has imposed an immediate 30-day suspension on all gambling advertisements, citing concerns over exposure to minors and misleading promotions. Operators must now submit all ad content for review and approval before resuming campaigns.
Wynn is hiring for its new casino in the United Arab Emirates, having released more details of the multi-billion dollar project, which includes gaming areas larger than that of Wynn Las Vegas. The resort is scheduled to open in 2027.
State by state
Louisiana: The bill, HB 639, that would see the rate of tax applicable to sports betting more than double – from 15% to 32.5% – has advanced from the state House Appropriations Committee.
Michigan: The Michigan Gaming Control Board has expressed its concerns about prediction markets to the Commodity Futures Trade Commission, arguing that sports event contracts are equivalent to online sports betting but are not licensed in the state.
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Closure
Buying it: Sega Sammy has finalised its €130m ($148m) acquisition of Stakelogic, following a Dutch court ruling that forced it to proceed despite earlier regulatory concerns.
An Amsterdam court dismissed Sega Sammy’s claims of compliance breaches in Japan and Turkey by Stakelogic, clearing the way for completion.
Stakelogic CEO Stephan van den Oetelaar said the deal marks “a new chapter,” while Sega Sammy praised the supplier’s innovative capabilities.
The acquisition, first announced last July, was aimed at boosting Sega Sammy’s position in the global igaming market.
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The paranoid style
Ring of fire: During yesterday’s Q1 earnings call, Evolution spoke about having ring-fenced its UK business under pressure from the ongoing regulatory probe being undertaken by the UK Gambling Commission.
Along with other issues, including cyberattacks in Asia and industrial strife in Georgia, it meant the business rate of growth slowed dramatically.
It was enough to scare investors who sent the shares crashing 19% on the day.
CEO Martin Carlesund reiterated the company’s support for regulatory processes globally, but went on to argue that as a supplier it cannot be held responsible for the channelization issues being faced in regulated markets.
“We believe that regulation is positive over time, and we support the regulators in the ways we can,” he said. “However, as a supplier, our impact is actually quite small.”
Vanishing point: He added that channelization rates were “highly dependent” on regulatory frameworks, including aspects such as tax rates and whatever other measures regulators employ. “If it is too expensive or too complicated to play, the players will disappear,” he said. “That is the reality.”
He added that “if you push the market too hard, the market will find its way to go to its products in another way.”
When channelization goes down, “it’s because the players are not comfortable playing on the regulated sites,” he said. “Then the regulators, in some cases, now move to repressive measurements.”
Carlesund noted he had been meeting with all the regulators and that Evolution was “working with them.”
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