A long way from ‘won’
Scrapping aim to permit for UK betting shops won’t happen overnight
Not over the line: The government’s pledge to scrap aim to permit has been celebrated as a victory for councils seeking greater control over gambling premises. But changing the principle embedded in the Gambling Act will require legislation, parliamentary time and decisions about what replaces it.
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Dawn chorus: Anti-gambling campaigning Dawn Butler, Labour MP Brent East, believes the campaign to give communities greater control over gambling premises has been won, writing in the Guardian this week that the government’s promise to scrap aim to permit represented a “huge victory” following years of campaigning.
It is, however, a victory over government policy rather than the law as it currently stands.
Before councils receive the powers Butler wants them to exercise, ministers must consult on the proposals, decide precisely how the licensing regime should change and secure the necessary legislation.
Smokescreen: The government is planning a six-week consultation and has said it wants its high street measures in place from the beginning of 2027. But that timetable may be more readily achievable for the planning changes affecting vape shops than for the removal of “aim to permit.”
The latter is contained in section 153 of the Gambling Act 2005.
It requires licensing authorities to aim to permit gambling premises where their operation accords with Gambling Commission codes and guidance, is reasonably consistent with the licensing objectives and complies with the authority’s own licensing policy.
Words matter: Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus Partners, said removing the principle would consequently require section 153 to be redrafted. Simply deleting the words would not resolve the question of what test councils should apply instead.
“It cannot simply be removed. It will have to be replaced with something and we don’t know what,” he said. “I am guessing it will also require parliamentary time.”
That replacement will determine the practical significance of the reform.
A new test could give authorities greater scope to consider the concentration or perceived social effects of gambling premises.
But the extent of that discretion – and the evidence councils would need to justify refusals – will depend on the eventual wording.
You have the power: Waugh also disputed the suggestion that authorities are currently powerless. He cited recent refusals in Sheffield and Haringey and told C+M that, according to Hansard, 85 planning applications had been refused, with 26 of those decisions upheld on appeal.
In his view, aim to permit protects lawful businesses and minority interests from decisions based principally on councillors’ personal objections to gambling.
It requires authorities to permit a legal activity when an application satisfies the relevant regulatory tests, rather than allowing applications to be rejected because gambling itself is unpopular.
Reclaim the streets: Butler’s Guardian article presented the principle differently, arguing it had left councils working against a presumption in favor of gambling premises and allowed the industry to expand “largely unchecked.”
She urged residents to “use these new powers” to reclaim their high streets, although those powers have so far only been announced.
Her argument also combines betting shops, casinos and AGCs within a wider narrative about the proliferation of gambling venues.
That obscures an important distinction. AGCs have actually declined slightly in the last 10 years while the number of betting shops has fallen from almost 9,000 in 2015 to fewer than 5,900.
Indeed, on the Evoke earnings call yesterday, the company noted how its William Hill estate had fallen to 1,024 shops versus 1,302 a year earlier.
Andrew Lyman, Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner and a former director of regulatory affairs at William Hill, described the announcement on LinkedIn as a political “deflection” that ignored the substantial decline in betting shop numbers.
He noted that bookmakers had argued against the removal of the previous demand test during the development of the 2005 Act.
That liberalization, he suggested, contributed to the subsequent race for betting shop locations before commercial and regulatory pressures drove numbers down again.
Regeneration X: Lyman also questioned whether restricting lawful premises would regenerate high streets. Councils can prevent particular developments, he said, but replacing closed businesses ultimately depends on private investment and consumer demand.
Betting shops are already subject to the same pressures from online commerce, business rates and changing consumer habits affecting other retail operators.
Welcome to the jungle: The task of potentially revisiting the Gambling Act and getting any legislation through parliament will fall to the newly-announced minister with responsibility for gambling, Vicki Foxcroft.
Here appointment was announced this week and was welcomed by the Betting & Gaming Council which noted her “support for regulation that is properly targeted and fit for purpose.”
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Colorado will introduce tighter sports betting advertising rules on Wednesday, banning promotional push notifications and terms including ‘bonus bet’ and ‘no sweat’. Operators will also be prohibited from advertising on platforms whose audiences are predominantly under 21, accepting credit card-funded deposits or restricting successful bettors. The legislation, approved by Gov. Jared Polis, limits players to six deposit-limit changes per 24-hour period.
Kenya: The High Court has lifted a temporary suspension of recently approved gaming reforms, allowing the Gambling Regulatory Authority to resume operations while a legal challenge proceeds. The new licensing fee structure remains paused pending the case’s outcome. Claimants argue the fees are substantially higher than those proposed during public consultation on the Gambling Control Regulations. A first hearing is scheduled for September 21.
The ASA has upheld 125 complaints against five Midnite betting and casino ads that depicted a succession of frustrating technology failures before promoting the operator’s app. The watchdog ruled that the juxtaposition suggested gambling could provide relief from stress or serve as a coping mechanism, encouraging socially irresponsible behaviour capable of causing financial, social or emotional harm. Midnite argued the campaign promoted its app’s reliability.
Commercial
GamScore and Mindway AI have partnered to combine player-controlled financial health monitoring with automated gambling-risk detection. The integration will bring GamScore’s privacy-focused platform, which allows bettors to track and demonstrate their betting health, together with Mindway AI’s neuroscience-backed behavioural profiling tools, GameScanner and Gamalyze. The companies said the combined approach would give operators a more complete view of player wellbeing while enabling customers to retain greater control over their data. GamScore and Mindway AI also plan to develop joint educational materials and integrated operational workflows.
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CFTC’s crisis order
Is this an emergency? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered Kalshi to continue serving customers in New York, invoking emergency powers as the prediction-market operator faces an attempt by the state to halt its activities under gambling law.
The intervention escalates the jurisdictional conflict between the federal derivatives regulator and state authorities over sports event contracts.
The CFTC said it has “exclusive jurisdiction” over federally registered entities such as Kalshi, including their contracts linked to sports, elections and other events.
Iron curtain: Chair Michael Selig accused New York of seeking to make event-contract derivatives “waste away under its iron curtain of state gaming laws” before courts could reach final decisions on their legality.
Conflict escalation: New York AG Letitia James filed a complaint on July 31 asking the state Supreme Court to grant a temporary restraining order against Kalshi. The state alleges that the exchange is violating its gambling laws.
Kalshi subsequently declared a market emergency, prompting the CFTC to intervene and direct the company to remain operational.
The order represents the CFTC’s latest attempt to establish federal primacy over prediction markets as state regulators challenge Kalshi and rival platforms.
Several states have accused the exchanges of offering unlicensed sports betting, while the CFTC has joined litigation to argue that federally regulated derivatives platforms are not subject to state gambling regimes.
Deep, deep down: Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told Bloomberg national exchanges depend on deep, nationwide liquidity.
She compared a potential New York shutdown to Nasdaq being barred from operating in the state, arguing that fragmented access would reduce liquidity, increase prices and make trading more difficult across the country.
Kalshi contends that these network effects explain why financial markets are regulated federally.
It’s the Feds: The CFTC’s action does not resolve the underlying lawsuit. Instead, it ensures Kalshi remains available in New York while the courts consider whether federal commodities law pre-empts the state’s gambling restrictions.
The New York Attorney General’s office declined to comment on the federal order.
Amazeballs: “I don’t even think the legal analysis is really wrong; I just think it’s amazing that a federal regulator has concluded that any effort to shut down sports gambling would be an emergency for financial markets.” Matt Levine, Money Stuff, Bloomberg.
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Novig has filed lawsuits against gaming regulators in Massachusetts, New Mexico and Washington, adding to an action launched against New York last week. The prediction-market operator is seeking preliminary injunctions in federal court to prevent state enforcement against its launched platform. Novig argues the CFTC has exclusive authority over prediction markets, echoing claims advanced by rival operators.
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Prediction compliance
Behind the 8 ball: Major financial institutions are moving rapidly into prediction markets, but Michael Ross of StarCompliance argued this week in a LinkedIn posting that their compliance and control models are struggling to keep pace with the commercial expansion.
Ross says firms are increasingly looking to their peers for guidance before committing to policies covering prediction-market activity.
This ‘pack’ behavior can reduce the perceived risk of acting alone, but it does not amount to an agreed industry standard.
Fundamental questions remain unresolved, including how event contracts should be classified and whether employees should be permitted to trade them.
Are you sitting uncomfortably? For Ross, the problem is that prediction markets do not sit comfortably within controls built around familiar financial instruments.
Their expansion creates new routes through which employees may exploit confidential or market-sensitive information.
Meanwhile, they also introduce conflicts that conventional personal-account dealing policies and surveillance systems may fail to identify.
Exposed: A contract’s regulatory or product label should therefore not determine how compliance teams treat it. The more important questions concern the underlying economic exposure, who may possess an informational advantage and whether that information can be monetized.
An employee could potentially trade on knowledge about a regulatory decision, corporate announcement, political development or other event without triggering controls focused narrowly on securities.
Across the waterfront: Ross argues that firms should resist responding to each emerging product with another isolated control. Instead, they need a broader compliance architecture capable of following the risk across different instruments and venues.
That means reassessing employee-trading rules, conflicts management, information barriers, surveillance and approval processes before prediction-market participation becomes widespread.
His central warning is that institutional adoption is accelerating faster than consensus around the necessary safeguards.
Firms following the pack commercially should not assume that peer activity removes their obligation to establish defensible controls of their own.
Integrity moves
Kalshi has signed a multi-year partnership with Nasdaq Market Surveillance to strengthen oversight of its prediction markets. Nasdaq’s technology will be introduced in phases, adding real-time, cross-market and cross-asset monitoring for manipulation, insider trading and other misconduct. The platform will complement Kalshi’s existing surveillance systems and support delivery of trade data to the CFTC in its required format.
Calendar
Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando
Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid
Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon
Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin
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