Expect the unexpected
A Maine ‘surprise’ points to iCasino regulatory uncertainties
Not out of the blue: Fraught politics kept Maine moves under wraps.
Tennessee waltz: Kalshi files, hires former state AG.
Tribal coalition backs Ho-Chunk action against Kalshi.
BGC issues a warning on business rates impact on UK betting shops.
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The Maine event
A Mills boon: The decision by Governor Janet Mills to allow LD 1164 to become law caught much of the market off guard. But according to those closest to the process, it was neither accidental nor impulsive.
As John Pappas, state advocacy director at the iDevelopment and Economic Association, explained, the groundwork had been quietly laid weeks in advance, even if no one wanted to say so publicly.
“Maine wasn’t completely out of the blue,” Pappas said. “We had heard for a couple of weeks that the governor was leaning in this direction.”
“She thought it was important to support the tribal entities in the state and this was an important ask for them.”
To the four: Under the bill, Maine grants its four Wabanaki tribes exclusive rights to operate iCasino, mirroring the structure already in place for OSB. For Gov. Mills, this was about correcting what tribal leaders have long argued was an imbalance in economic opportunity.
Yet the politics were fraught. Land-based operators including Churchill Downs and Penn Entertainment lobbied heavily against the bill, warning about exclusivity and competitive distortion.
“It wasn’t an easy decision,” Pappas noted. “There were brick-and-mortar complaints, both were worried about exclusivity.”
That opposition helps explain why the bill’s progress appeared muted until the very end. “No one said anything publicly because no one wanted to look foolish,” Pappas added.
Size isn’t everything: From an economic standpoint, analysts are broadly aligned: Maine will be small, but meaningful. Using comparisons with established iCasino states such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Michigan, Deutsche Bank estimates a long-term GGR midpoint of around $378m.
Citizens is more conservative, modeling a $280m-$300m market at maturity.
Texas Capital applies a simpler rule-of-thumb multiple to online sports betting GGR, arriving at roughly $230m annually.
Two plus two: Operationally, the early advantage clearly lies with DraftKings and Caesars Entertainment, both of which already partner with Wabanaki tribes for OSB. Analysts expect each to secure at least one brand, with Caesars potentially running two.
But Maine’s structure leaves room for intrigue. As Pappas pointed out, the third and fourth tribal licences raise questions around monetization.
“You can assume others will be presenting powerful economic arguments as to why the tribe should partner with them,” he said.
Proof in the pudding: If Maine were simply another incremental iCasino state, the story might end there. But analysts and advocates alike see wider implications. “This is a proof point,” Pappas argued. “It shows that iCasino is acceptable and won’t hurt lawmakers at the ballot box.”
More importantly, he said, it reinforces evidence from other states that online casino gaming can coexist with land-based operations without cannibalization and, in many cases, drive overall gaming growth.
That argument has become increasingly central as opponents continue to cite post-Covid softness in some retail casino markets. Pappas countered that timing, not causation, has driven much of that narrative.
“In states with both iCasino and brick-and-mortar, we are seeing double-digit growth and overall gaming growth,” he said.
“In states with only land-based gaming, growth is relatively flat.”
The reckoning: Crucially, Maine does not signal an easy path forward. Pappas was blunt: “There are no easy wins. Every iGaming state will be hard fought, and hard fought in its own way.” States such as Virginia and New York remain active legislative battlegrounds, but each comes with its own complications.
This ranges from competing gaming bills to entrenched opposition from land-based interests. Even so, Maine strengthens the hand of proponents by adding another real-world example to cite.
In a landscape now complicated further by prediction markets, which Pappas described as a “reckoning” for some states, the regulatory status quo is increasingly difficult to defend.
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Not fair: A congressional effort to reverse a change in federal gambling tax policy has hit the wall. The US House Rules Committee declined to advance the Fair Accounting for Income Realized From Betting Earnings Taxation Act, (the FAIR BET Act), as an amendment to the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. The Act sought to restore the federal practice allowing bettors to deduct 100% of documented gambling losses from winnings.
France’s gambling regulator ANJ has warned it will closely scrutinize operators’ “aggressive” 2026 promotional plans, for the first time ordering firms not to exceed stated marketing budgets and to strictly limit reallocations between spending lines. Operators may need to curb social media promotions, show “moderation” in sports partnerships and reduce bonus spend.
The Bingo Association has appointed public affairs and responsible gambling specialist Nicole Garrett as its new CEO, as long-serving chief executive Miles Baron prepares to step down after a 14-year tenure at the end of June 2026. Garrett will join in spring 2026 from Allwyn International, where she led group responsible gaming.
FanDuel has criticized a C$350,000 ($252.2k) fine imposed by Ontario’s Alcohol and Gaming Commission, which said the operator failed to properly detect and report suspicious betting linked to potential match-fixing in Czech Table Tennis Star Series events in late 2024. Regulators cited 144 bets across three accounts.
Kalshi files in Tennessee
I got too big for my britches: Kalshi has a former state attorney general and a former deputy attorney general on the payroll as it lobbies Tennessee to let it operate in the state. The prediction market platform filed a lawsuit in the US District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee on Friday, and on Monday the papers appeared on the docket.
On Friday, a cease-and-desist was sent to Kalshi by Tennessee’s Sports Wagering Council.
The complaint contains similar arguments to Kalshi’s suits in Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, New York and Ohio.
Kalshi said it is under the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and that state law does not apply due to the federal Commodity Exchange Act.
Long distance information: Lawyers for Kalshi said the CFTC had green lit Kalshi’s sports contracts last year, noting that shortly after the operator first filed to offer sports contracts, the CFTC requested a “Demonstration of Compliance.”
Following the submission, the CFTC took no further action, which Kalshi’s lawyers took as permission to continue.
The CFTC had “since allowed thousands of Kalshi’s sports event contracts to be listed, traded and closed, with no hint that the agency views these contracts as falling outside of its jurisdiction,” it said.
In September, the CFTC told licensed firms that it had not made a decision on whether sports event contracts were permitted by its rules.
Wrong side of Memphis: Also included in the filing were emails between Tennessee authorities and the firm, requesting a meeting in a bid to show Kalshi’s attempts to reach an agreement without the need for legal action.
“As you are probably aware, Kalshi is in litigation with a number of other states – including three cases that are in federal Courts of Appeal (3rd, 4th, 9th Circuits),” wrote Robert Cooper, an ex-Tennessee attorney general who is now with Tennessee-based firm Bass, Berry & Sims.
“It is our understanding that Tennessee may be contemplating a related action, and we would appreciate the opportunity to have a dialogue with the AG’s Office before any litigation is filed,” he added.
“Alternatively, if the state is not considering bringing an action, we would appreciate confirmation of that.”
When you haven’t got a prayer: Cooper said Kalshi was in talks with other states, some of which had backed down. In response, Chief Deputy Attorney General Lacey Mace said: “I don’t have anything to share with Kalshi at this time.”
Less than three days later, the state sent its cease-and–desist letters.
Mace said she had sent a similar response to Andy Cook from Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe, who was previously chief deputy attorney general for Wisconsin.
Tribes vs. prediction markets
Got your back: A coalition of Native American organizations and tribes has filed a legal brief backing a lawsuit brought by the Ho-Chunk Nation against prediction market operator Kalshi and its brokerage partner Robinhood Markets.
According to Bloomberg, a brief submitted last week by the tribes argues the contracts offered by Kalshi and distributed via Robinhood amount to unlawful gambling that undermines tribal sovereignty and federally protected gaming rights.
The filing was supported by the Indian Gaming Association, the National Congress of American Indians and 16 federally recognized tribes.
Brazen: The groups stressed that gaming revenue is central to funding essential government services, social programs and economic development across Indian Country.
“For tribes, gaming is not merely a ‘commercial’ endeavor, but an existential one,” Bloomberg reported the brief as stating.
The brief went on to describe Kalshi and Robinhood’s activities as “brazenly illegal.”
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UK rates debate
Rates of decline: The Betting & Gaming Council (BGC) has issued a stark warning that the UK’s current business rates system is contributing to the accelerated decline of Britain’s high streets.
The BGC said the issue has become a focal point in ongoing government debates about the future of physical retail and high-street regeneration.
It follows on from ministers’ recent pause on planned rates increases for pubs, a concession that the BGC believes should be extended across other high-street sectors.
BGC CEO Grainne Hurst emphasized that outdated and unfair business rates are undermining the viability of B&M betting shops, and without reform there is a risk of “losing thousands more local jobs, investment and vital footfall.”
This would further weaken town centre economies already under strain, she said.
She argued that the approach taken with pubs in recognizing the pressures facing physical premises needs to be applied across the high street if broader regeneration goals are to be met.
Under pressure: The BGC highlighted official figures showing a roughly 30% reduction in betting shop numbers since 2019, falling from 8,304 to 5,825 by March 2025, contributing to over 10,000 job losses and lower business rate revenue for local authorities.
The BGC also noted that recent gambling tax increases, although not directly targeting retail shops, are felt across operators’ single balance sheets, increasing financial strain on stores and further threatening their sustainability.
Community service: Despite these challenges, the BGC underscored the ongoing economic and social role of betting shops: they support around 42,000 jobs, contribute nearly £1bn a year in direct taxes and generate approximately £60m annually in business rates.
Independent research by ESA Retail also found that 89% of betting-shop customers visit other local businesses when visiting a shop, supporting broader high-street footfall.
The BGC reiterated that licensed betting shops are tightly regulated, with robust protections such as age verification and safer-gambling measures.
It warned that if current trends continue, closures will not only impede high-street recovery but also drive consumers toward the harmful illegal gambling black market.
Calendar
Jan 20: Gaming in Holland lunch @ ICE
Feb 19: SBC Digital Compliance Technology, online
Apr 28-29: Ethical Gambling Forum 2026, Leeds
May 26-28: Gambling & Risk Taking Conference, Las Vegas
Jun 4: Gaming in Holland, Amsterdam
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