Fake news
UK’s stats agency again warns OHID over misuse of gambling-harm data
OSR raises fresh questions over the integrity of gambling-harm evidence.
In +More: Texas governor Abbot ‘not there yet’ on OSB or casino gaming.
Judge orders Evolution to hand over documents in Black Cube case.
MLB warns players about participation in prediction markets.
New York governor Hochul signs anti-sweeps measure into law.
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Dodgy data
Damage done: The UK’s statistics watchdog has issued an unusually direct warning to the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) expressing concern about the department’s widely cited analysis of the ‘economic and social costs’ associated with problem gambling.
Getting the hump: In a letter last week, the director general of the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), Ed Humpherson, said the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID), part of the DHSC, had repeatedly failed to engage on requests to clarify how its 2023 gambling-harms report should, and should not, be used.
The letter stated OHID’s data is continuing to be used in ways that may “mislead people.”
Physicians heal themselves: The intervention matters on two levels: first, because OHID estimates played heavily in lobbying around last month’s rise in remote gambling taxation; second, because OHID has now been appointed commissioner of gambling-harm prevention services under the forthcoming statutory levy.
Thus, the organization responsible for allocating £30m a year in levy funding is simultaneously under fire for allowing one of its flagship pieces of analysis to be repeatedly misrepresented.
Not listening: In the letter, Humpherson made it clear that the regulator has been attempting without success to persuade OHID to take responsibility for the misuse of its figures.
OSR recommended “a prominent disclaimer or banner” on the publication, clarifying that the reported £1bn-£1.7bn annual cost estimate reflects associations rather than proven causation.
The distinction is critical: as even OHID itself accepted last year, the analysis was never intended to imply that gambling harms cause this economic burden.
Flashing red: Humpherson wrote that OSR has “lacked any recent engagement” from OHID and urged the department to “put measures in place to prevent the potential misuse of this analysis” and ensure statistics are used in ways that “strengthen public debate.”
The language is unusually forceful. OSR seldom admonishes other public bodies in this manner.
The letter reflects growing concern that the misinterpretation of OHID’s report has already influenced policy: in particular, the Treasury’s decision to raise remote gaming duty and betting duty.
A pattern of indifference: Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus Partners, who has repeatedly highlighted problems with the OHID analysis, said the OSR intervention confirms long-standing fears about the department’s approach to evidence.
He argued that OHID has shown a pattern of indifference to accuracy, and that the misuse of its harms estimate was not accidental.
Speaking to C+M, Waugh highlighted that a “large number of politicians and campaigners have chosen to ignore” OHID’s own warning not to treat associations as causal.
OHID has done little to correct the misunderstanding.
Weapon of mass disinformation: Waugh noted the harms report became a powerful lobbying tool in the run-up to the Budget, with think tanks – including the Social Market Foundation and Institute for Public Policy Research – and even former prime minister Gordon Brown citing the analysis as justification for higher gambling taxes.
In his view, OHID’s refusal to address misrepresentations “may indicate an indifference to factual accuracy,” with the troubling implication that the report was “intended to be misused.”
Structurally unsound: The OSR critique also comes at a pivotal moment: OHID will soon oversee levy-funded harm-prevention services and has already signaled its intention to support advocacy on issues such as advertising and licensing.
Waugh warned that this strengthens the need for rigorous statistical stewardship.
If the same body both defines gambling harms and funds campaigns to influence regulation, misuse of evidence risks becoming structurally embedded.
Garden path: Waugh further suggested the Treasury’s tax decision may produce unintended harms of its own, and that misuse of OHID statistics may ultimately be partly responsible.
He pointed to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast that higher taxes could fuel black-market growth, as well as risks to gambling treatment funding (much of which depends on spend in the regulated online sector), the finances of racing, and regional employment.
“If these events come to pass,” he argued, “legislators may reflect on the role of the OHID in permitting HM Treasury to be misled.”
It’s all your fault: Humpherson’s letter places the onus squarely on OHID. Given the OSR criticism and repeated instances of misuse, the application of a prominent disclaimer or banner to the report would appear to be the minimum that OHID might be expected to do, if it wishes to be taken seriously.
Whether OHID accepts this corrective direction, or continues to resist, will determine whether confidence in the department’s stewardship of gambling-harm evidence can be restored.
Public health warning: For now, the dispute underscores a deeper tension in UK gambling policy: the growing influence of a public-health framing of gambling, combined with a persistent struggle to ensure the statistics underpinning that approach meet the standards of neutrality, transparency and accuracy that high-stakes policymaking requires.
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+More
Breaking: Turkish authorities have arrested two Süper Lig players and former Adana Demirspor president Murat Sancak as an illegal betting probe expands to athletes and executives. Galatasaray’s Metehan Baltaci and Fenerbahce’s Mert Hakan Yandaş face match-fixing accusations, while Sancak was detained over suspicious transactions. All deny any wrongdoing. The case follows a Turkish Football Federation probe that found widespread referee betting, leading to over 100 suspensions. Prosecutors warn the widening investigation may reach additional club leaders.
New Zealand: The proposed online casino legislation has passed the crucial select committee stage, paving the way for legalisation of up to 15 licensed casinos. The revised bill boosts the online gambling duty to 16%, with 25% of tax revenue earmarked via the Lottery Grants Board for community funding. If enacted, licensed operators will be allowed to advertise, raising concerns about a surge in gambling marketing, especially among vulnerable populations.
The Finnish line: Finland has formally set the timeline for its shift to a licensed gambling market, with parliamentary committees finalizing the key elements of the long-awaited reform. B2C licence applications open March 1, 2026, ahead of market opening on July 1, 2027, when B2B applications also begin. Mandatory B2B licensing follows in July 2028. While the legislation still awaits formal approval, no changes are expected. The government will also explore unified loss limits across all licensed operators.
Texas: The governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, said he does not support changing the state constitution to legalize casino gambling. Speaking to CBS News, Abbott expressed concerns about gambling-related issues such as addiction, potential corruption in sports, and negative cultural impacts. Although some lawmakers have proposed allowing a limited number of casino resorts, Abbott remains opposed, saying the state needs to “pause” and guard against harm.
France’s Senate has approved amendments granting Paris gaming clubs permanent status, after nine years under a pilot scheme. Lawmakers say a stable framework will reduce operator uncertainty. The clubs generate about €120m a year in tax revenue. The measure, part of the 2026 budget bill, now awaits National Assembly approval.
Georgia: A Senate study panel in Georgia has recommended legalizing OSB, raising the prospect of new revenue streams for the state. The proposal is part of the final report from the Senate study committee on ‘Making Georgia the No. 1 State for Tourism,’ a late addition that was never publicly debated by the committee. Proponents argue that revenue from sports betting could help attract major events, concerts and sporting fixtures, and boost tourism, mirroring strategies in other states.
What we’re reading
Reeling: India’s new Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act has banned all real-money online games, including fantasy sports, poker and rummy, regardless of whether they involve skill or chance. But the government is pushing instead for social games, esports and ad-supported formats, though the transition is expected to take time. From Asia Gaming Brief.
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Evolution – more revelations
Hand them over: A New Jersey judge has ordered Evolution to hand over internal documents and regulator investigation files to the defendants in its legal battle with Black Cube.
Specifically, the discovery order demands Evolution provide the report produced by Spectrum Gaming Group, which it used for an internal compliance review.
It also has to provide all communications with regulators, details of any submissions to licensing authorities, identities of individuals interviewed, and transcripts or notes from those interviews.
Mask slips: This ruling marks a setback for Evolution. Previously, another court decision forced Black Cube to unmask its client behind the 2021 prohibited markets report, which was found “objectively baseless” by regulators in New Jersey, who had closed their investigations with no evidence of wrongdoing by Evolution.
At the same time, the judge refused Evolution’s request to reveal individual undercover Black Cube agents.
It accepted the firm’s argument that disclosure could endanger them, a point of particular sensitivity given Black Cube’s use of former intelligence-service personnel.
Back at you: The rulings follow a fresh affidavit from Black Cube’s director, claiming that, as of October 2025, Evolution’s games remained accessible from prohibited jurisdictions, including Iran and France, suggesting the original 2021 report’s findings may still hold relevance.
Evolution, for its part, described the discovery demand as a tactic to distract from what it views as an “unlawful and anticompetitive” campaign led by Black Cube and its now-identified client, Playtech.
The company reaffirmed its confidence in its compliance regime.
Meanwhile, Black Cube and Playtech insisted the newly requested documents and evidence deserve careful judicial scrutiny.
MLB’s prediction warning
Out of bounds: Major League Baseball has warned its players that participating in prediction markets for baseball, such as contracts offered by Kalshi, Polymarket and similar platforms, violates its longstanding gambling rules.
A memo sent jointly by the office of commissioner Rob Manfred and the Major League Baseball Players Association this summer explicitly prohibits players from risking money on any outcome tied to baseball games or events.
The memo only came to light last week when Front Office Sports splashed on the story.
The memo was distributed across both major and minor leagues, posted near locker rooms, and intended to clarify that existing betting bans now clearly extend to these newer forms of wagering tied to event outcomes.
The league warned players against “participating in ‘prediction markets’ to risk money on any outcome related to baseball games or events.”
On ice: The MLB stance stands in contrast to that of the NHL, which in October announced multiyear agreements with Polymarket and Kalshi.
However, more conservatively, the NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, said last week during a Genius Sport investor day that the league would assess “how things play out” with predictions before making any official move.
Predictions approval
DraftKings has received approval from both the National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission for its subsidiary DraftKings Predictions to act as an introducing broker and swap firm, a key regulatory milestone toward launching its event-contract platform.
Separately, SBC Americas reported that Betr has a license approval pending with the NFA to launch a platform called Betr Predictions.
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NY’s anti-sweeps law
Swept aside: New York governor Kathy Hochul has signed into law the official ban of online sweepstakes casinos in New York.
The legislation immediately outlawed platforms that use dual-currency systems, effectively making them illegal.
Under the new law, operating, promoting, or otherwise facilitating these sweepstakes casinos is prohibited.
That includes not only the platforms themselves but also payment processors, content suppliers, geolocation services, media affiliates and any financial institutions supporting them.
Violations may result in fines of between $10,000 and $100,000 per offence.
Stop it! The law reflects and expands on earlier enforcement efforts. In June 2025, the office of New York attorney general Letitia James issued cease-and-desist orders to 26 sweepstakes platforms operating in the state, prompting many to suspend services to avoid legal exposure.
Further, the move by New York follows action in several other states with bans or regulatory crackdowns, including California, Connecticut, New Jersey, Montana and Nevada, and legislation has already been filed in additional states for 2026.
Should’ve gone to Specsavers: In condemning the move on the part of the New York legislature, Jeff Duncan, executive director of the Social Gaming Leadership Alliance (SGLA), said Governor Hochul “had the opportunity to protect consumer choice and New York’s economic interests.”
“Instead, she chose a short-sighted path, closing the door on choice, innovation and hundreds of millions in economic activity.”
Maine drag: Separately, a bill has been introduced in Maine that would ban the social games category entirely.
Responding, SGLA MD Sean Ostrow said the move would “stifle innovation and strip millions of dollars of economic activity from small businesses, advertisers and, ultimately, the state.”
He added: “SGLA urges the Legislature to take a more considered, long-term approach to this innovative sector and regulate, rather than senselessly ban, this popular form of free to play, casual entertainment.”
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Jun 4: Gaming in Holland, Amsterdam
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