Fenced in
Evolution’s compliance efforts clash with regulatory reality
The paradox: Evolution’s problematic European strategy.
In +More: Four bills in New Jersey targeting online.
Nevada promises more enforcement actions against prediction markets.
Match-fixing continues to decline as AI-powered detection gains ground.
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Evolutionary paradox
Ring the alarm: Evolution’s earnings call with the analysts earlier this month revealed a company caught in a regulatory paradox and suffering financially because of it.
CEO Martin Carlesund said the company has implemented “the strongest, most strict ring-fencing measures among all providers in Europe.”
Yet, the live casino supplier saw European revenues decline 8% YoY to €367m in the quarter, contributing to flat full-year growth for the company as a whole.
On the block: The gaming supply giant has been operating under the shadow of a UK Gambling Commission investigation since December 2024, when the regulator launched a formal review over concerns that Evolution’s games were accessible to UK consumers through unlicensed operators.
In response to the investigation, Evolution moved swiftly – starting in Q1 last year, the company deployed comprehensive geo-blocking to ensure its content reaches only licensed territories across Europe.
These compliance efforts came at significant cost: the ring-fencing measures contributed to negative growth in Europe throughout the year.
Diversionary tactic: Yet Carlesund was emphatic on the call that ring-fencing itself isn’t the root problem. “The current challenge is not the actual ring-fencing, but instead the channelization decline in some major countries as a result of regulatory measures,” he explained during the call.
He complained that in certain European markets channelization has dropped to approximately 50%.
For Evolution, which supplies only licensed operators, this means access to only half the available market as players migrate to unregulated platforms.
“Simply put, the players are by the regulation pushed out of the regulated remit and are to a larger extent playing on unregulated operators that we don’t accept,” Carlesund stated.
He suggested overly restrictive regulatory measures, including tax increases, advertising restrictions and product limitations are driving players toward the black market.
“The regulation is not balanced right now,” Carlesund said. “Players are pushed out of the regulatory remit. That affects us.”
Nature abhors: On the UK Gambling Commission investigation, Evolution reported an information vacuum. “We haven’t heard anything from the Commission since last summer in relation to their investigation,” Carlesund told analysts.
“We don’t know when they will come back, but [we] have been very cooperative and, as already stated, have very strict reinforcing measures in place since very early last year.”
The company had previously estimated the review would conclude by year-end 2025.
But that deadline passed without resolution, leaving Evolution unable to predict when or how the regulatory review will conclude.
New disclosure: Recognizing heightened regulatory focus on supply chain compliance, Evolution introduced new geographic revenue disclosures in its Q4 report, breaking down revenue both by customer location (where licensed operators are based) and by customer IP addresses (where players actually game).
When asked about this new transparency, Carlesund explained: “It’s a lot of focus on regulatory aspects and where players are coming from.”
“We feel that it’s important now to disclose and show this is our revenue. This is our customers. This is where our customers are.”
The distinction is revealing: while all Evolution revenue comes from licensed operators, only approximately 47% is estimated to come from regulated player jurisdictions based on IP geolocation.
Priority traffic: Evolution’s situation underscores a growing tension in European gambling regulation: suppliers that prioritize compliance may face competitive disadvantages if stringent enforcement drives players toward less scrupulous operators.
The company acknowledged this dynamic by noting it would reduce relative investment in Europe compared to the US and Latin America.
Carlesund described these markets as offering “a more stable environment.”
“We are not happy with the quarter in Europe,” Carlesund admitted when pressed by analysts.
“There are a lot of effects from the regulatory measures and the instability of the market. Some countries are not developing according to what we want.”
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New Jersey: State senators have filed four bills aimed at tightening online gambling rules to promote safer play. The package would ban push notifications and text offers to individual bettors, prohibit credit-card funding of online casino and sports-betting accounts, require published account-limit rules with notifications, and bar incentives for customers using responsible gaming tools. The measures are under committee review and reflect increased focus on responsible gambling amid industry scrutiny.
The National Council on Problem Gambling wants US prediction market operators to display and promote its helpline number. It argues the platforms carry consumer-risk levels comparable to sports betting and should adopt visible harm-reduction measures as a public health best practice.
California has approved new rules governing blackjack-style games and player-dealer rotation at card rooms, with the Office of Administrative Law saying the regulations will take effect April 1 and require card rooms to submit updated compliance plans by May 31.
Philippines: PAGCOR is tightening online-gaming rules amid Senate scrutiny, addressing concerns about minors, identity misuse and money-laundering. According to local media it’s reinforcing KYC checks and considering a full ban on gambling ads beyond current prime-time limits, with talks ongoing with operators. PAGCOR is also working with the Ad Standards Council on stricter digital ad oversight and monitoring illegal ads for enforcement.
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Nevada battle
Time is right for fighting in the street, boy: Nevada has had enough of Kalshi, with the state saying it will bring a new enforcement case against the prediction market operator over sports event contracts.
State defendants notified the Ninth Circuit court they intend to file a civil enforcement proceeding against Kalshi on February 17.
The notice was filed in KalshiEX, LLC v Hendrick, where Kalshi is seeking a stay pending appeal.
Nevada said it had previously indicated it would temporarily pause enforcement while the stay motion was considered.
While you were sleeping: Having tried last year to boot Kalshi out, the Attorney General’s Office argues the platform has only expanded while asking the appeals court to pause enforcement.
The state says Kalshi has “massively increased” trading volumes and marketed its sports bets as “100% legal” in “all 50 States.”
Nevada cites the district court’s finding that the ongoing operation causes “substantial irreparable harms” to the state, the gaming industry and the public interest.
The filing quotes a Nevada state court order in the Polymarket matter, arguing that “every day” of unlicensed operation increases consumer transactions and potential harm.
Nevada says Kalshi’s continued operation poses an “existential threat” to the state’s gaming industry and that failing to enforce state law would effectively hand Kalshi the stay it is seeking.
’Cause I got no more patience: The decision to take action follows a year of whiplash in Nevada courts over whether sports event contracts are betting under state law.
US District Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved Kalshi’s preliminary injunction in a November 24 decision, writing that the contracts are “sports wagers” despite being labeled swaps.
Kalshi filed a stay motion at the Ninth Circuit on December 17; Nevada’s notice says the motion was fully briefed by January 5 and referred to the merits panel on January 27.
Nevada says it has pursued “evenhanded” enforcement against competitors, noting Crypto.com and Robinhood stopped operating in the Silver State while their appeals are pending, and it has also filed civil actions against Polymarket and Coinbase.
Ban it: Separately, Nevada Congresswoman Dina Titus has introduced a bill that would ban sports event contracts on prediction markets.
The Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act attempts to intervene on the federal level by amending the Commodity Exchange Act.
The bill is currently under review by the US House Committee on Agriculture, with a companion also introduced in the US Senate.
Lula threats
Buffalo stance: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has publicly committed to a strong crackdown on online gambling, tying the issue into broader concerns about social harm, tax compliance and child protection.
Speaking at a federal event in Mauá, near São Paulo, Lula said his government would take a “very serious stance” against online gambling.
He argued that it extracts money from the country’s poorest citizens.
He framed his opposition in moral and economic terms, noting that digital gambling has made casino-style betting ubiquitous “in the home, in the living room, in the hands of your children.”
The pledge comes as the federal government prepares draft regulations aimed at restricting minors’ access to harmful online content.
According to draft language reviewed by Bloomberg, the proposed rules would require age-verification systems on app stores and digital platforms to block under-age access to online gambling, pornography, escort services and other content deemed inappropriate.
These moves align Brazil with other countries tightening digital protections for young users.
Strictest sense: Lula’s statements reflect ongoing political and regulatory momentum in Brazil around gaming and online harm.
Last year’s fully regulated online betting market has rapidly expanded, prompting lawmakers to consider stricter measures, including proposals to ban gambling advertising across media and raise taxes on licensing.
Industry stakeholders have warned that aggressive restrictions could push bettors toward unlicensed operators, complicating efforts to maintain a safe and compliant regulated market.
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Sports integrity update
Small victories: The fight against match-fixing in sport is making measurable progress, according to a newly published annual report from Sportradar, albeit with only a 1% decline.
The company’s Integrity in Action 2025 report revealed that Sportradar monitored over one million sporting events across 70 disciplines worldwide over the course of last year.
Of those, 1,116 were flagged as suspicious.
Critically, more than 99.5% of all monitored events were free from any suspicion, underscoring the effectiveness of coordinated integrity efforts across the global sports ecosystem.
Europe remained the region with the highest number of suspicious matches, though it continued a downward trend, recording 66 fewer cases than in 2024.
South America also reported a decline, with 64 fewer suspicious matches detected year-on-year. In contrast, Asia, Africa, and North and Central America experienced modest increases.
On the ball: Soccer remained the sport most impacted by match-fixing in 2025, with 618 suspicious matches detected. Basketball followed with 233 cases, while tennis (78), table tennis (65) and cricket (59) recorded notable increases.
The report said this underscores how match-fixing activity is “increasingly dispersed across multiple sports rather than concentrated within a single discipline.”
Tech what you can get: Andreas Krannich, EVP for integrity and regulatory services at Sportradar, said the relative stabilization of suspicious match numbers in 2025 was “encouraging.”
Match-fixing remains an evolving threat, and sustained investment in technology, intelligence, education and collaboration is essential to staying ahead of those seeking to corrupt sport,” he added.
The report attributed much of this progress to a combination of enhanced monitoring technology, stronger enforcement and expanded education programmes.
A standout development was the advancement of Sportradar’s AI-powered Universal Fraud Detection System, known as UFDS AI.
The system uses machine learning to analyze vast betting datasets in real time, identifying irregular patterns that traditional methods might miss.
Suspicious matches flagged through AI analysis rose 56% YoY, reflecting the system’s growing sophistication and reach rather than a spike in manipulation.
Bat a thousand: Enforcement also played a significant role, with Sportradar supporting 125 sporting sanctions across seven sports and six continents, pushing the company’s all-time total past the 1,000 mark.
Meanwhile, its education initiatives reached more than 34,000 participants – a 25% increase from 2024.
Looking ahead, Sportradar is preparing to provide integrity support for several high-profile events in 2026, including the FIFA World Cup in North America and the ongoing Olympic Winter Games in Italy.
Calendar
Feb 19: SBC Digital Compliance Technology, online
Apr 28-29: Ethical Gambling Forum 2026, Leeds
May 26-28: Gambling & Risk Taking Conference, Las Vegas
Jun 4: Gaming in Holland, Amsterdam
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