Mob rules
New CFTC chair asserts roles in setting prediction market rules
“It’s time for clear rules,” says Michael Selig in first public comments.
In +More: Colombian court blocks renewal of VAT on gambling.
The Netherlands: Trade body warns on coalition’s gambling plans.
A slew of state-by-state gambling legislation comes out of the traps.
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Market forces
Within the pale: New regulations are coming for prediction markets. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair Michael Selig used his first public remarks to reset the agency’s recent approach to political and sports event contracts, and to signpost an incoming federal framework.
Selig directed staff to withdraw the CFTC’s 2024 proposed rule that would have treated political and sports outcomes as “gaming” and barred them from CFTC-registered venues.
He also withdrew the September 2025 staff advisory that warned registrants about litigation and enforcement risks tied to sports-related event contracts.
Selig said event contracts have long sat “within the CFTC’s regulatory perimeter” and that the current uncertainty has not served markets or the public interest.
I could write a book: Selig has ordered staff to draft a new “event-contracts rulemaking,” describing the existing framework as difficult to apply and inadequate for current market activity.
“It is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets,” he said, adding that legal “uncertainty” has not served markets nor the public interest.
The withdrawn advisory had warned exchanges that court outcomes could disrupt access to sports-related contracts; its removal signals greater federal certainty pending the new rules.
He also told staff to reassess the CFTC’s participation in ongoing federal litigation.
Be seeing you: Legal experts said they expect the CFTC to be more interventionist in regulating prediction markets and defending its right to do so.
“I think the agency will take steps to eliminate roadblocks that are currently in place for prediction markets that are on the books,” said Andrew Kim, gambling partner at Goodwin.
One casualty could be the CFTC rule against event contracts that involve “gaming.”
But despite the regulator’s bullishness, “courts don’t owe any deference to what the CFTC thinks about pre-emption and about how federal law interacts with state law,” Kim added
Breaking news: Another matter all parties are rapidly having to address, including Selig, is how prediction markets act as high-reach, low-verification “news” feeds on social media.
Axios documented Polymarket and Kalshi posts that circulated false or context-free claims, including a fabricated quote attributed to Jeff Bezos and a misleading post on immigration enforcement later amplified by the Department of Homeland Security.
Kalshi said errors are rare and that it revokes affiliate badges in cases of hate speech or misinformation.
Selig said the regulator will dedicate resources to investor protection, anti-fraud and anti-manipulation, and market integrity, “which remain our north star.”
When you’re frozen: Meanwhile, a Nevada state court has ordered Polymarket to stop all event-contract activity in the state for at least two weeks, granting the Gaming Control Board’s request for a temporary restraining order.
Judge Jason Woodbury said the regulator is “reasonably likely to prevail” in its case alleging Polymarket is offering unlicensed wagering in violation of Nevada law.
The order barred Polymarket from offering sports and other event contracts for 14 days from January 29 , ahead of a February 11 hearing on a preliminary injunction; Polymarket may file in opposition.
Citing recent federal rulings involving Kalshi, Woodbury wrote that “the balance of convincing legal authority weighs against federal preemption,” and that Polymarket’s Nevada activity poses “immediate, irreparable” harm to the state’s licensing and oversight regime.
Polymarket re-entered the US market in December via CFTC-regulated QCEX; the Nevada action follows other conflicts between prediction market platforms and state regulators, including ongoing litigation involving Kalshi and Crypto.com.
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Pay the piper: DraftKings and FanDuel have begun pouring significant sums into federal politics ahead of the 2026 midterms, marking a shift from their usual state-level focus. Popular Information reported DraftKings has given $500,000 to the Senate Leadership Fund and $2m to a new PAC, Win for America, which has since channeled funds to groups backing both Republican and Democratic candidates. FanDuel donated $500,000 each to the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund, and matching amounts to the Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board has sued Coinbase in Carson City District Court, as first reported by gaming attorney Daniel Wallach. The authority requested a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to stop the digital currency exchange from offering unlicensed sports wagering in violation of Nevada law. “It seems like only a matter of time before Nevada sues all of the other platforms that are still offering sports event contracts in Nevada,” Wallach said.
Colombia: The country’s Constitutional Court has temporarily blocked a planned 19% value added tax on online gambling and betting under emergency Legislative Decree 1390, suspending the measure while its constitutionality is reviewed. The ruling halts the VAT applied to GGR from platforms and betting services pending a final decision, pausing a key fiscal move by President Gustavo Petro’s government amid broader budget-related emergency measures.
Brazil: Regis Dudena has stepped down as head of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets, leaving the post less than two years after his April 2024 appointment. He will instead lead the Secretariat of Economic Reforms at the Finance Ministry. Authorities have not named a successor..
Yaspa, a C+M sponsor, has joined as a founding member of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ International Gaming Institute’s new AI Research Hub (AiR Hub), which seeks to deepen industry understanding of AI’s impacts, risks and opportunities. Reported by CDC Gaming, the initiative also counts Aristocrat, Evoke, Playtech and the Responsible Online Gaming Association among its founding members.
Dutch coalition complaint
Warning bells: The Netherlands Licensed Online Gambling Providers’ Association (VNLOK) has warned that the coalition agreement presented by the incoming Dutch government on January 30 risks undermining the regulated market’s core objectives.
Undermining: Specifically, VNLOK has cautioned that the total ban on gambling advertising as put forward in the coalition agreement would contravene the original purpose of bringing in an open, regulated market with stringent duty-of-care, advertising and oversight requirements.
“That system only works if the legal, safe offer also remains visible to the player,” said VNLOK chair Björn Fuchs.
“A total ban on advertising undermines exactly that starting point.”
Black is the new oranje: VNLOK cited data from the Dutch regulator showing a strong growth of illegal offerings since the 2023 ban on untargeted advertising.
Recent research indicates that in late 2025 over 97% of online gambling ads on Meta platforms were from unlicensed operators.
VNLOK supports tougher action against illegal operators and stronger platform responsibilities.
It also argued that simply limiting licenses would not automatically improve safety if strict supervision and market access conditions are absent.
Let’s get to work: These industry concerns come against the backdrop of a new minority coalition government, formed by centrist pro-EU, conservative and right-wing parties after prolonged talks following the 2025 election.
The policy agenda includes heightened regulation of sectors viewed as socially sensitive.
The coalition agreement emphasizes public protection but remains politically tenuous, relying on cross-party support to pass controversial reforms.
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The legislative wave
Expand/contract: A slew of OSB legislation has emerged across multiple US statehouses, with a mix of expansion efforts and tighter consumer-protection proposals underscoring the fragmented nature of the regulatory picture in 2026.
In the expansion corner, South Carolina and Alaska have each revived bills carried over from prior sessions.
A new bill in Alabama would let voters decide whether to legalize gambling, including a state lottery and OSB operations.
Southern belle: South Carolina’s SB 444 would legalize online sports betting under a 12.5% tax on adjusted gross revenue, authorize up to eight online licenses and establish a dedicated regulator.
The bill faces its first test in a Senate subcommittee hearing in mid-February.
Northern exposure: Alaska’s HB 145 sketches a relatively structured framework: up to 10 licenses at $100,000 each, a 20% tax rate and a requirement that applicants already operate in at least three other states.
Notably, launch would be triggered only once three licenses are awarded, signaling a cautious, phased approach.
Cottoning on: In Alabama, a new bill would let voters decide whether to legalize gambling, including a state lottery and sports betting, by authorizing a vote on a constitutional amendment.
The proposal from state Senator Merika Coleman would allow the governor to establish a gambling commission and give lawmakers authority to draft regulatory legislation.
Alabama is one of just a few states without a lottery, and previous comprehensive gambling efforts have stalled in the legislature.
Quite contrary: Elsewhere, the legislative focus is more on guardrails. Maryland lawmakers are weighing HB 518, which would ban college prop bets, raise the minimum age for daily fantasy sports and introduce a voluntary exclusion system spanning DFS and lottery products.
The proposal reflects a growing tendency to bundle sports-betting rules with broader responsible-play measures.
New Jersey, meanwhile, is looking at integrity and advertising. SB 3200 would establish a dedicated tipline for suspicious betting activity, bring in independent integrity monitors and tighten advertising rules.
In Virginia. HB 1527 would open the door to betting on in-state college teams while imposing a higher tax rate on those wagers, effectively using fiscal policy as a risk-management tool.
Calendar
Feb 19: SBC Digital Compliance Technology, online
Apr 28-29: Ethical Gambling Forum 2026, Leeds
May 26-28: Gambling & Risk Taking Conference, Las Vegas
Jun 4: Gaming in Holland, Amsterdam
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Couldn't agree more, especially with Selig saying that 'uncertainty has not served markets or the public interest'. While it's great to see a push for clear rules and new tech like Yaspa using AI to protect players, it sometimes feels like regulasion is always playing catch-up with innovation, making me a bit sceptical about how fast real change can happen.