Monkey see
Gibraltar claims prediction markets regulatory ‘first’
Dedicated framework poses more questions than provides answers.
Polymarket joins Kalshi in seeking permission for margin trading.
In +More: Apollo faces fine over Bowyer betting scandal.
Payments under scrutiny in Lithuania’s illegal casino fight.
Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.
Learn more at www.yaspa.com
Monkey do
For those about to Rock: Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction to create a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, offering the sector a third route between gambling and financial regulation.
We salute you: But the initiative prompts an obvious question: why does an activity already treated elsewhere as betting or a financial derivative require its own category?
We are the dealers: Gibraltar has formally launched what it describes as the world’s first bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, establishing the activity as a distinct statutory category under its Gambling Act 2025.
The framework adopts what the government called an “activity-based and risk-based approach.”
It covers market integrity, participant protection, financial crime, governance, operational resilience and the objective settlement of contracts.
Stand up and be counted: Every event contract must be approved and certified by Gibraltar’s gambling authority. Contracts must be clearly worded, capable of objective settlement, resistant to manipulation and consistent with the regime’s regulatory objectives.
For what you are about to receive: Operators must maintain systems addressing market manipulation, insider dealing and the misuse of confidential information.
The regulator can also restrict contracts it considers inappropriate or contrary to the public interest, including markets involving criminal conduct, death, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict.
Further requirements cover conflicts of interest, the safeguarding of client assets, AML and sanctions compliance, financial resources and wind-down planning.
An independent supervisory panel has been established to oversee implementation.
We’ll give you everything you need: Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar’s minister for justice, trade and industry, said via LinkedIn the regime represented the fulfilment of a commitment made only months ago after he identified prediction markets as a potential source of economic diversification.
’Cause rock has got the right of way: “Today, Gibraltar becomes the first jurisdiction in the world to adopt a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets,” he wrote.
Feetham said Gibraltar’s new gambling legislation enabled prediction markets to be licensed as betting exchanges.
He added the accompanying regulations reflected months of engagement with operators, investors and other industry participants.
We ain’t no legend, ain’t no cause: The first operator is expected to be licensed under the new regime shortly. Gibraltar has also granted approval in principle to a second applicant and expects to issue another approval in principle within weeks.
We’re just livin’ for today: “This is more than a new regulatory framework; it is a statement of intent,” Feetham said.
“My ambition is to position Gibraltar as a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and for the development of new markets underpinned by high regulatory standards.”
We’re just livin’ for today ADI Predictstreet already holds a Gibraltar betting-intermediary license issued under the previous Gambling Act, while US betting marketplace WagerWire has received approval to launch.
WagerWire is targeting the introduction of B2B and B2C products around the beginning of the NFL preseason and the European football season in August.
We rock at dawn, on the front line: What remains up for debate is whether prediction markets need a dedicated regulatory category at all. Across most jurisdictions, the available answers have fallen into two familiar camps.
A contract allowing customers to stake money on the outcome of a sporting, political or other uncertain event is treated as gambling and therefore requires the relevant betting license.
Alternatively, its construction as a tradable contract places it within financial services and derivatives regulation.
Like a bolt right out of the blue: Gibraltar is effectively offering a third answer: prediction markets are sufficiently distinct to justify their own authorization, operating requirements and supervisory framework, albeit housed within gambling legislation.
That distinction may provide greater regulatory certainty for applicants, but it does not necessarily resolve the classification question in any market those operators intend to serve.
A Gibraltar license cannot determine whether a contract is gambling, a financial instrument or a prohibited product in another jurisdiction.
Pick up your balls and load up your cannon: The European direction of travel is more restrictive. As C+M noted last week, the European Securities and Markets Authority recently reminded firms that certain yes-or-no event contracts may qualify as financial instruments under MiFID II.
Where an event contract is a financial instrument and provides either a fixed payout or no payout according to a binary outcome, existing measures prohibiting the offering of binary options to retail clients can apply.
Giving the product a different commercial name does not change its legal characteristics.
Oh, for those who give and those who take: Separately, gambling regulators from nine European jurisdictions – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland – have coordinated action against unlicensed prediction market platforms.
Several European authorities have already treated the products as gambling, blocked operators or ordered them to withdraw.
These illustrate the problem facing Gibraltar’s experiment: if an event contract is gambling, it can already be supervised through gambling legislation.
If it is a financial derivative, financial services rules apply and retail distribution may be prohibited.
Creating a separate domestic category does not remove either determination when the product crosses a border.
Heads will roll and rock tonight: Feetham acknowledged that there was “no settled consensus” internationally over how prediction markets should be characterized. Gibraltar’s answer, he said, was to provide “an additional regulatory option” capable of supporting innovation while maintaining market integrity and participant protection.
Economically, Gibraltar is looking to diversify a gambling sector heavily exposed to the UK market and to demonstrate that it can move faster than larger jurisdictions when new digital products emerge.
Feetham said the framework would attract investment, generate high-value employment and give a developing global industry regulatory certainty.
Doing your time and those on the rank: But the regulatory proposition will ultimately be tested outside Gibraltar. The framework may establish credible standards for companies, governance, custody, surveillance and contract approval.
What it cannot provide is passporting into countries that regard the same contracts as unlicensed betting or retail binary options.
Gibraltar has therefore answered the question of how it wishes to regulate prediction markets.
The larger question of whether the rest of the world recognizes prediction markets as a separate activity in the first place remains far from settled.
⚽ Ready to reinvent player protection for the 2026 World Cup? 🌍
Mindway AI introduces Gamalyze Sports—our next-generation, gamified responsible gambling solution designed specifically for sports bettors.
Forget boring, static questionnaires that players ignore. Mindway AI turns player protection into an interactive football game, over a decade of research of neuroscience and behavioural research to analyse real-time decision-making on the pitch. By replacing retroactive surveys with active gameplay, it delivers an unbiased, highly engaging experience that builds genuine self-awareness for players, while giving operators deep behavioural insights straight to their dashboard.
Localised in 14 languages, it’s the ultimate way to safeguard fans this summer.
👉 Click here to try the Mindway AI Gamalyze Sports demo now!
Polymarket margin
It’s, er, coming home: Polymarket is seeking to add margin trading to its US prediction markets offering, with Bloomberg saying the company has filed an application with the National Futures Association to operate as a futures commission merchant (FCM) via its affiliate Coming Home.
The filing, dated July 3, would be a necessary step in Polymarket’s effort to let users open positions without putting up the full capital amount upfront.
The company would also need CFTC approval for rulebook changes allowing non-fully collateralized trading.
Follow the leader: Kalshi has already moved in this direction, securing its own FCM license earlier this year as part of a wider push to scale event-contract trading and support more advanced products such as perpetual futures.
Bloomberg said Kalshi generated more than $5.5bn in perpetuals volume within two weeks of launch, largely through contracts linked to crypto tokens.
You name it: For Polymarket, the application comes amid rapid growth. Weekly notional volume on the platform reportedly reached a record of more than $4bn in June, but the next phase is likely to depend on whether platforms can attract institutional capital while satisfying regulators that their controls are robust.
That issue is becoming increasingly sensitive. Polymarket’s use of a public blockchain means trades are traceable, even if accounts are pseudonymous.
Bloomberg noted US margin products would require additional identity checks, including employer information, adding a further compliance layer as prediction markets seek to move further into the financial mainstream.
+More predictions
Italy’s Customs and Monopolies Agency has again blocked access to Polymarket, placing the prediction market on its blacklist of unauthorized gambling sites, Agimeg reported. The platform had previously secured a temporary reopening after challenging an earlier ban before the Lazio administrative court, although no ruling was made on its legal status. The renewed action could also raise questions over Polymarket’s sponsorship of Serie A club Lazio.
The Netherlands: Meanwhile, the Dutch gambling regulator, Kansspelautoriteit, has rejected Polymarket’s appeal against an earlier ruling that classified the prediction market as an online gambling operator rather than a financial platform. The regulator said Polymarket is operating without a Dutch gaming license and must withdraw from the market immediately. Polymarket had argued that its cryptocurrency-based platform facilitates only peer-to-peer trading, not gambling.
Life of Brian: Former US Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair nominee Brian Quintenz has joined the Coalition for Prediction Markets as an adviser. Quintenz had been selected to lead the CFTC before President Donald Trump withdrew his nomination and named Michael Selig instead.
California: Three tribes urged the Ninth Circuit to revive their injunction bid against Kalshi, arguing its sports event contracts constitute online sports betting and violate tribal gaming compacts and the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). Kalshi maintained it does not operate on tribal lands, cannot be sued as a private entity under IGRA and offers financial market contracts rather than gambling products.
GuardDog, powered by Underdog, is a pioneering investment fund dedicated to fostering innovation in responsible gaming.
GuardDog supports and accelerates early-stage startups focused on building new and creative solutions to address problem gaming and further responsible gaming.
Ready to be one of the underdogs of responsible gaming?
Visit to apply: https://underdogfantasy.com/guarddog
+More
Alberta has officially opened its regulated online sports-betting and casino market with 50 platforms from 32 operators, including BetMGM, bet365, Caesars, DraftKings and FanDuel. Suppliers also highlighted their presence, including IGT, Aristocrat Interactive and Hacksaw Gaming.
The Massachusetts Gaming Commission has requested a study into casino advertising aimed at Asian communities, examining whether operators use predatory marketing tactics. The move follows The Boston Globe reports alleging casinos specifically target Asian residents in Greater Boston. Properties cited included Wynn Resorts’ Encore Boston Harbor, Bally’s Twin River, Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods, although several are located outside Massachusetts.
Apollo Global Management faces a $7.2m fine under a proposed settlement with the Nevada Gaming Control Board over illegal bookmaker Mathew Bowyer’s betting at The Venetian. Bowyer wagered at the property between 2019 and 2021 under Las Vegas Sands ownership. Apollo inherited liabilities after acquiring the casino, including responsibility for inadequate due diligence. Final approval is expected in August.
The NCAA has opened an inquiry into Cincinnati over what the university knew about former quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s prohibited sports betting, ESPN reported. The move follows claims from Sorsby’s agent that officials knew about the activity, which Cincinnati denies. Sorsby reportedly wagered about $90,000 over four years and was ruled permanently ineligible for the 2026 season under NCAA gambling rules.
Malaysian police dismantled an alleged online betting syndicate linked to the FIFA World Cup after raiding a Kuala Lumpur office and arresting 11 suspects. Authorities seized cryptocurrency credits worth about $323,380, believed to represent bets on World Cup matches, plus MYR18,817 ($4,600) in cash. The operation, allegedly led by a Canadian, targeted customers in South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong markets.
EGBA’s Lithuania compliant
What’s in your wallet: The European Gaming and Betting Association (EGBA) has filed a complaint with the Bank of Lithuania against electronic money institution Walletto, alleging it provided payment services to online casinos operating without the required local licenses.
First reported by Bloomberg, the complaint represents a potentially important shift in enforcement strategy.
Regulators and licensed operators have traditionally focused on website blocking, advertising restrictions and action against individual gambling brands.
The EGBA is now seeking to disrupt the supporting infrastructure that allows offshore operators to accept deposits and process withdrawals.
“Illegal operators flourish by exploiting legitimate financial channels and the mainstream payment networks that consumers rely on every day,” said EGBA secretary general Maarten Haijer.
“Our aim is simple: to leave them no room to manoeuvre, and to cut off the payment channels they use to reach European consumers,” he added.
Wild at heart: The trade body alleges Walletto’s activities breached EU and Lithuanian AML requirements. Walletto did not respond to Bloomberg’s requests for comment.
An investigator appointed by EGBA reportedly deposited £50 with iWild Casino in Denmark and €100 with Frank Casino in Poland, where neither operator held a local license. Both payments were allegedly processed by Walletto.
In the Danish test, the payment reportedly used an unclear transaction reference and did not carry the merchant category code required by Visa and Mastercard for gambling transactions.
EGBA argued this indicated deficiencies in merchant due diligence and transaction classification.
Seen it all before: Visa told Bloomberg that it prohibits illegal activity on its network, while stressing that financial institutions are responsible for onboarding and monitoring merchants. Mastercard said it works with institutions connecting merchants to its network when potential unlawful activity is identified.
The Bank of Lithuania declined to comment on the complaint or any potential supervisory investigation.
However, the regulator confirmed it had previously identified weaknesses in Walletto’s AML controls, transaction monitoring and customer due diligence.
An April settlement included a €290,000 penalty and an obligation to address the deficiencies.
Progress report: Separately, EGBA published its 2026 annual activity report last week, which Haijer hailed as a landmark year following the “most impactful European Safer Gambling Week yet,” with the approval of the first European standard on markers of harm, new standards on influencer marketing and continued progress under its AML guidelines.
Calendar
Jul 22-24: NCPG Annual Conference, Nashville
Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando
Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid
Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon
Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin
Increase Operator Margins with EDGE Boost Today!
EDGE Boost is the first dedicated bank account for bettors.
Increase Cash Access: On/Offline with $250k/day debit limits
No Integration or Costs: Compatible today with all operators via VISA debit rails
Incremental Non-Gaming Revenue: Up to 1% operator rebate on transactions
Lower Costs: Increase debit throughput to reduce costs against ACH/Wallets
Eliminate Chargebacks and Disputes
Eliminate Debit Declines
Built-in Responsible Gaming tools
To learn more, contact Matthew Cullen, chief strategy officer on Matthew@edgemarkets.io
An +More Media publication.
For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.
