Nice ’n’ sleazy
Trump weighs in on the CFTC sole regulator debate
President calls prediction market critics “scum,” as he ups the rhetoric.
Meanwhile, Manhattan prosecutors charge Polymarket trader with fraud.
UK ads regulator calls foul over Oddschecker Instagram posts.
Spribe handed a procedural victory by UK court over Aviator dispute.
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Truth and consequences
This is my truth tell me yours: President Donald Trump weighed in on the side of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the debate over whether the federal authority should have jurisdiction over prediction markets and labeled those that believe the states should have precedence as “scum.”
Via a Truth Social post, Trump said it was “critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive.”
“Under my leadership, we are setting ‘rules of the road’ that are the Gold Standard for the States.”
Scum dancing; In response to the various legal actions taken by the states, Trump ranted that “we cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie [ex-Governor of New Jersey], Letitia James [New York AG], Tim Walz [Governor of Minnesota], and JB Pritzker [Gov. of Illinois] setting the rules!”
Back in April, James was among the bipartisan group of 38 state AGs that filed an amicus brief supporting Massachusetts’ case against Kalshi.
In Minnesota, meanwhile, the Trump administration has sued the state over its new prediction market ban, arguing the law is preempted by federal law.
Similarly, the CFTC is also suing Illinois, among other states that have attempted to move against prediction markets.
Rattle, rattle, goes the bullet round and round the roulette wheel: Trump’s latest comments appear to mark an abrupt repositioning compared to what he said in the wake of the Gannon Ken Van Dyke and Maduro markets insider-trading scandal, when he suggested “the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.”
“And you look at what’s going on all over the world, in Europe and every place, they’re doing these betting things,” he added.
“I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is.”
“No, I think that I’m not happy with any of that stuff. But they have all these different sites. They have predictive markets. It’s a crazy world. It’s a much different world than it was.”
Top of the world: In his latest post, the President went on to claim that “Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top.”
“Likewise, and even more importantly, where we are currently the Crypto (Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World, other Countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity, but we won’t let that happen.”
“It is a major Industry, and we must protect it. Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job.”
Spanish practices: Trump’s fears about ‘other countries’ might be somewhat overstated. Just last week, the Spanish gambling authority issued a temporary ban on Kalshi and Polymarket as it launched an investigation into whether the pair are offering gambling without a license.
The Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego claimed both platforms are offering unlicensed online gaming products in the country and will conduct reviews over the next four months.
If the regulator confirms its claims through the reviews, Kalshi and Polymarket will face permanent bans.
Both platforms will have the option to seek gaming licenses or appeal the decision if the claims are confirmed.
Spain follows in the wake of France, Belgium, Portugal, Hungary and Switzerland, which all have full bans in place, while Italy and Germany have trading restrictions under regulatory review.
In the UK, the Gambling Commission has previously said that it was likely prediction markets would need a gambling license in order to operate.
Hand on the tiller: The New York Times last weekend revealed that two CFTC officials who raised questions about Polymarket and Crypto.com had been placed on indefinite leave.
The paper noted that in the first 16 months of the Trump II administration, the CFTC has also shrunk its work force, sharply curtailed crypto enforcement and “helped out prediction markets at virtually every turn.”
It also highlighted the explicit links between the Trump family and prediction markets operators, including Polymarket where Don Jr. is an investor.
Under notice: Separately, the White House is reviewing a new CFTC proposal that would lay out guidelines for event contracts. The measure is seen as being the latest move on the part of the agency to mark its turf as it battles with states over who gets to regulate the exploding prediction markets.
According to a notice posted by the Office of Management and Budget, the plan is under review.
The notice did not include any details about what’s in the proposal, which would be subject to public comment.
Polymarket trader charge
Who is dis doin’ this synthetic type of alpha beta psychadelic funkin’? Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo – allegedly the Polymarket trader known as ‘AlphaRaccoon’ – with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering in a $1.2m insider-trading scheme.
The Department of Justice said Spagnuolo, 36, an Italian citizen residing in Switzerland, used confidential data to place trades related to the top Google searches of 2025 between October 15, 2025 and December 4, 2025.
According to the complaint, he risked about $2,754,092 through the AlphaRaccoon account on Polymarket and made about $1.2m after the relevant information became public and the markets resolved.
Money trees: He correctly guessed that a singer named D4vd would “be the #1 searched person on Google” despite Polymarket’s calculation of a “near-zero probability,” according to the complaint, and also put bets on Pope Leo XIV and Kendrick Lamar not appearing on Google’s ‘Year in Search 2025’ lists, which are also difficult to predict.
Prosecutors said Spagnuolo had access to Google internal systems through his job and used a tool marked “Google Confidential.”
He appeared before US magistrate judge Sarah Netburn in the Southern District of New York on Wednesday.
Kalshi legal pushback
Move off: Kalshi’s efforts to move lawsuits over its sports event contracts from state to federal court were rejected in both Nevada and Washington by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.
The panel ruled the cases primarily concerned alleged violations of state gaming laws, despite Kalshi’s argument that the CFTC has exclusive authority over prediction markets.
Judges said claims of federal preemption were insufficient to override state-level gaming enforcement actions.
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PAGCOR has warned that non-compliant business-to-business gaming providers in the Philippines will have their electronic gaming systems decommissioned from August 1, as part of a broader overhaul of the country’s online gaming regulation. Suppliers must submit accreditation applications by May 31 and complete all requirements, including probity checks, system testing and cash deposit obligations, by July 31.
Micro management: In the US, Sen. Brian Schatz is preparing legislation to ban micro-prop bets and give the Federal Trade Commission power to investigate and penalize companies that knowingly facilitate illegal offshore gambling. Schatz said micro-props are “insidious” because they “can be manipulated by a player or anyone else,” adding that the bill is intended to address integrity risks and the “addictive, manic, algorithmically driven problem” tied to those markets.
Bangladesh is preparing a sweeping overhaul of its 159-year-old gambling laws as authorities intensify efforts to combat online betting, illegal payment flows and gambling advertising. Home Affairs minister Salahuddin Ahmed said the proposed legislation would replace the country’s 1867 Public Gambling Act with a “modern and time-befitting” framework covering digital gambling activity. The move follows growing concern over illegal online betting.
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Insta shocker
Kane unable: Two Instagram betting advertisements featuring football stars Harry Kane and Erling Haaland have been banned by the UK’s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) after the regulator concluded the promotions were likely to have a “strong appeal” to under-18s.
The ruling centered on two social media posts published by Oddschecker through its oddscheckertv Instagram account.
One advertisement featured Kane alongside text claiming the Bayern Munich and England striker was the “most backed player” to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
The second showed Manchester City’s Haaland with messaging highlighting betting activity on Norway winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Pesky kids: The complaint was brought by a researcher from Bristol University, who argued the promotions breached UK gambling advertising rules prohibiting content likely to strongly appeal to children or young people.
Under the UK CAP Code, gambling advertisements must not feature sportspeople, celebrities or influencers who are judged to hold particular appeal among under-18s.
Fair use: Oddschecker owner FairPlay Sports Media said the posts were “primarily editorial in nature” rather than direct gambling advertisements, arguing this was why they did not contain the age disclaimers and safer gambling messaging typically attached to betting promotions.
The operator also noted that the Instagram account had been restricted to users aged 18 and above due to the risks associated with using “top-flight” footballers in promotional content.
Anti-social: The ASA rejected those arguments, however, stating that Instagram remained widely used by under-18s and that many younger users could access the platform using inaccurate birth dates.
The regulator concluded both footballers carried a “high risk of strong appeal to under-18s” because of their global profile and continuing prominence in elite football.
The watchdog ruled the advertisements were irresponsible and breached advertising standards rules.
Va va voom: In a separate ruling issued at the same time, the ASA found that a Betway Instagram post featuring Thierry Henry did not breach the code. The regulator determined the former Arsenal striker was less likely to hold strong appeal among children and teenagers due to the length of time since his playing career peaked.
Fresh off the back of our U.S. focused webinar “Beyond the Month Webinar 2026: The Future of Player Protection in the US: Trends, Innovations, and Challenges”, the Mindway AI team will be attending some key upcoming North American events.
University of Nevada-Las Vegas Gambling & Risk Taking Conference, Las Vegas, May 26-28
International Association of Gaming Advisors (IAGA) International Gaming Summit, Florida, June 2-4
SBC Summit Americas, Florida, June 9-11
We look forward to connecting with industry leaders at these events. Drop us a message to arrange a meeting contact@mindway.ai
Spribe/Aviator dispute
Drop the pilot: A UK High Court ruling has handed crash game developer Spribe an important procedural victory in its ongoing intellectual property dispute with Aviator LLC over the lucrative ‘Aviator’ brand and crash game concept.
The decision, issued by Deputy Judge Michael Tappin KC on May 22, centers on which legal framework should apply to parts of the dispute.
Georgia on my mind: The court ruled that foreign law – rather than English law – would govern key elements of the case tied to international copyright claims and the recognition of earlier Georgian court judgments.
The case stems from a broader legal battle between the two companies over ownership of the Aviator brand, logos and related crash game intellectual property.
Aviator LLC, which was established by Georgian businessman Temur Ugulava, has accused Spribe of infringing its intellectual property rights and has pursued litigation in multiple jurisdictions.
Spribe, meanwhile, maintained that it legitimately owns the trademarks associated with its globally successful Aviator crash game.
Berne baby Berne: The latest ruling is viewed as favorable to Spribe because it prevents the dispute from being judged solely under English legal principles. Instead, courts may need to assess prior Georgian rulings and copyright questions under the laws of each relevant jurisdiction covered by the Berne Convention.
Judge Tappin also rejected an attempt by Aviator LLC to secure a separate preliminary hearing focused exclusively on ownership of the disputed Aviator image.
The judge concluded the ownership issues were too intertwined with broader factual and Georgian law questions to be separated from the main proceedings.
Crash clash 2: The legal fight has become one of the industry’s most closely watched IP disputes due to the commercial success of crash games and the global popularity of Spribe’s Aviator title.
The companies have already clashed in UK courts previously, with Spribe securing an interim injunction in 2025 blocking Aviator LLC from launching competing products in the UK ahead of a full trial.
Calendar
May 26-28: Gambling & Risk Taking Conference, Las Vegas
Jun 4: Gaming in Holland, Amsterdam
Jun 10-11: Player Protection Symposium, Fort Lauderdale
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