Slippery customer
CFTC chair would rather not dwell on difficult questions
Selig’s podcast appearance is a masterclass in issues avoidance.
In +More: Meanwhile, the Australian regulator says predictions are gambling.
Ontario moves to suspend PointsBet over Porter bets.
Michigan: Gov. proposes significant online gambling tax increases
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Avoidance strategy
Ask me no questions: Michael Selig, the new chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), sat down with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast last week for what could have been a clarifying interview about the explosive growth of prediction markets.
And I’ll tell you no lies: Instead, listeners were treated to a masterclass in regulatory evasion.
Merit badge: Selig, who took over at the CFTC late last year, was pressed repeatedly on the question of how prediction markets on sporting events are meaningfully different from sports betting.
His answer, such as it was, leaned heavily on the rhetorical device that the CFTC is “not a merit regulator” – a phrase he deployed repeatedly.
“We don’t tell people what they should be entering into contracts on,” Selig told the Odd Lots hosts.
“We create rules and regulations around those markets. We don’t tell people whether to trade pork bellies or Cardi B markets.”
Yeah, baby, I like it like that: Selig was referring to the controversy surrounding whether the pop star did or did not perform during Bad Bunny’s halftime show at the Super Bowl.
Kalshi determined that the appearance was ambiguous and refunded all trades/bets while Polymarket resolved the market as a ‘yes’.
Bloomberg’s hosts pushed harder, pointing out that a market on Bad Bunny’s first song at the halftime show could be seen as being functionally indistinguishable from a spin on a roulette wheel.
Selig conceded that “there’s no requirement in the act that there has to necessarily be some merit-based result from a contract.”
He then pivoted to the familiar defence that prediction markets “produce a lot of useful information,” citing the 2024 presidential election as a shining example.
The boy with the thorn in his side: The hosts also raised the thorny matter of insider trading, or, more precisely, the information asymmetries that are inherent in many event contracts. Here again, Selig was vague to the point of abstraction.
“There are situations where there are information asymmetries,” he admitted.
“That is something we are thinking about. We are on the beat and exploring,” he offered.
On the question of market integrity more broadly, Selig fell back on the self-regulatory model, noting exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket “are really the first line of defence and they are surveilling the markets, they are doing KYC on their customers.”
Nothing to see here: Perhaps the most obfuscatory exchange came when Bloomberg raised the conflict of interest posed by Donald Trump Jr.’s investment in Kalshi. Selig’s response was a masterpiece of non-engagement.
“They have some of the most stringent market requirements. We take fraud and manipulation really seriously,” he said.
“Everyone can rest assured that we are on top of protecting the markets.”
I’m no expert: Even the matter of aggressive marketing by prediction market platforms drew only the most tentative response. “Something we are thinking about is how do we have consistent standards,” Selig said.
“I’m not one to say necessarily what the marketing should look like.”
When asked whether the effective lowering of the gambling age in many states was a concern, he batted it away.
“This more paternalistic question about what age should be the age to be able to participate in the markets, I don’t think that’s for the regulator to decide.”
Here comes the sidestepper: The overall picture that emerged from the interview confirmed his initial public comments earlier this month, a tone that suggests a regulator who sees his job as facilitating the growth of prediction markets rather than necessarily scrutinizing them.
The “not a merit regulator” mantra is doing a lot of heavy lifting, allowing Selig to sidestep questions about gambling, integrity, conflicts of interest and consumer protection.
“This term ‘betting’ has been used and thrown about and I don’t think it means anything in particular,” he said.
Innovation invite
Designing a new horse: Meanwhile, it has been announced that Jason Robins, CEO at DraftKings, and Christian Genetski, president at FanDuel, have joined the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee.
They join such prediction market and coin trading luminaries as Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek.
The CFTC said the committee would help it “keep pace with how breakthrough innovations, such as artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies, are transforming markets.”
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+More
It’s gambling, mate: Australia’s online gambling regulator, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), has ruled that platforms such as Polymarket constitute gambling rather than financial instruments. The decision, revealed via a freedom of information request lodged by online news source Crikey, found the prediction market’s operations fall under gambling law, meaning Polymarket must comply with licensing requirements or face enforcement action. Recall, the UK Gambling Commission has also recently said it believes prediction markets would be classed as gambling were they to launch in the UK.
Tabcorp fine: Meanwhile, the ACMA has fined Tabcorp A$158,400 ($111,785) for illegally accepting online in-play sports bets, which are banned under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. An investigation found Tabcorp took 426 in-play wagers on tennis matches between February 2024 and June 2025. This marks the company’s third breach of in-play betting rules.
France: The ANJ has urged operators not to exceed their declared 2026 promotional budgets after seeing a more than 25% rise in planned spend linked to the FIFA World Cup calendar. With new hydration break ad slots creating extra airtime, the regulator wants broadcasters and operators to show restraint and respect existing rules, including bans on advertising illegal gambling, reinforcing calls for moderation in ad pressure.
PointsBet Ontario suspension
A market first: The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) has taken a landmark regulatory step by proposing a five-day suspension of PointsBet Canada’s iGaming registration, citing serious compliance failures tied to the Jontay Porter NBA betting scandal.
In a Notice of Proposed Order issued on February 12, the AGCO said PointsBet exhibited a “systemic failure to properly monitor, detect, document and report suspicious betting patterns” connected to wagers on games involving former Toronto Raptors forward Jontay Porter.
Porter was banned from the NBA in April 2024 for leaking insider information and deliberately underperforming to benefit bettors.
Regulators now say the operator should have flagged and reported irregular betting activity at the time.
Missing a free throw: Earlier in the investigation, the AGCO directed all licensed sportsbooks in Ontario to confirm whether they offered wagers on Porter and to disclose any suspicious trends.
According to the regulator, PointsBet initially responded only after significant delay, incorrectly stating it had not offered such bets.
After a US Department of Justice indictment unveiled the broader scheme in late 2025, PointsBet acknowledged for the first time that it had taken bets on Porter games.
The AGCO said some of these bets showed patterns that it believes “should have been detected and reported when the betting occurred.”
Terrible defending: The proposed suspension – the first of its kind within Ontario’s regulated online gambling market – underscores the AGCO’s insistence that licensed operators act as a critical first line of defence in protecting sporting integrity.
PointsBet Canada has the right to appeal the order, with a 15-day window to file a challenge before the independent Licence Appeal Tribunal.
In response, the company said it was “disappointed” by the decision, attributing its initial reporting misstep to “human error during an organizational transition,” and said it would consider all available options.
Awks: The transition referred to is the takeover of PointsBet by Japanese leisure conglomerate Mixi, which was finally completed late last year.
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Michigan taxes
Whit-more: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has unveiled a new fiscal 2026-27 budget proposal that includes substantial changes to the state’s gaming tax regime, with a focus on online casinos and sports betting as revenue sources.
The stated aim is to help close budget gaps and support programs such as Medicaid.
Under the plan, the top tax rate on online casino revenue would rise from 28% to 36% for operators with annual adjusted gross receipts above $185m.
The state estimates this iGaming tax increase could generate about $135.5m annually if enacted.
You be Illin’: The proposal also introduces an Illinois-style per-wager sports-betting tax, where sportsbooks would pay $0.25 per bet on the first 20 million wagers each year and $0.50 per wager thereafter.
This represents a shift from taxing only revenue to taxing each individual bet placed, with projected revenues of nearly $38.8m annually for state coffers.
In addition to the per-wager fee and iCasino tax rate hike, Whitmer’s proposal seeks to eliminate promotional free-play deductions that currently reduce taxable revenue for sportsbooks.
Removing that exemption is estimated to bring in an additional $21m.
Combined, these gambling tax changes could yield roughly $195m in additional annual revenue for Michigan, largely earmarked for health and social service funds.
Damp down: Industry stakeholders and some lawmakers have already signaled resistance, warning that higher taxes could dampen market growth or “risk slowing expansion” of Michigan’s online gambling sector.
Calendar
Feb 19: SBC Digital Compliance Technology, online
Apr 28-29: Ethical Gambling Forum 2026, Leeds
May 26-28: Gambling & Risk Taking Conference, Las Vegas
Jun 4: Gaming in Holland, Amsterdam
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