The warning
The Netherlands becomes a case study in black market leakage
The Dutch authorities learn some harsh lessons in unintended consequences.
In +More: PrizePicks is back in New York.
A Nevada federal judge reaches for the dictionary in Crypto.com’s case.
Cura-ciao: Gaming authority resignations cause Curaçao consternation.
Black is the new orange
Collision course: When the Netherlands opened its online gambling market in October 2021, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) was widely praised for crafting one of Europe’s most rigorous licensing and consumer-protection regimes.
Four years on, however, the regulator’s latest Online Gambling Monitoring Report reads like a warning label for what happens when well-intentioned interventions collide with economic reality.
For the six months to June 2025, the KSA reported total online GGR of €600m, down 14% from the previous half-year.
While participation levels held steady – around 839,000 Dutch adults gambled online in H1 – the monetary value of the legal market fell sharply.
Conscious moves: The main culprit was the Responsible Play Policy Rule and new Deposit Limits and Conscious Play Regulation that took effect in October 2024. These imposed strict net deposit caps – €700 a month / €300 for 18-23 year-olds – and mandatory “conscious play” checks for affordability.
The KSA’s data showed high-loss concentration collapsed: accounts losing over €1,000 a month fell from 73% of total GGR before the rules to just 18% afterwards.
But total revenue fell with them and, crucially, much of that play appears to have moved offshore.
Leaky bucket: The regulator estimates that while 94% of players accessed only licensed sites, the legal market accounted for just 49% of total GGR, down from 51% in late 2024.
That implies an illegal market now worth €617m, larger than the licensed one.
Falling and laughing: Regulus Partners called the Netherlands “a once well-regulated market now clearly and objectively failing in real time.” The consultancy pointed to the “clear causes and effects” of over-tightening.
“Tighter regulation and higher taxes are not working and are demonstrably counter-productive in terms of both fiscal and player-safety outcomes,” the analysts wrote.
Game for a Laffer: The numbers bear that out. Despite the government increasing its GGR tax rate from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, tax receipts actually fell 4% as the base contracted. “The Laffer Curve has been found,” Regulus wrote tartly.
Regulus argued the turning point was Q424, when deposit limits first hit. Within weeks, quarterly revenue dropped 22% QoQ and 18% YoY.
Casino and poker were worst affected, while even the small horseracing segment plunged 32%.
Nearly a year later, the market had not recovered.
Gaming the system: One behavioral response identified by both KSA and Regulus is multi-accounting – players opening several accounts to avoid hitting the monthly limit. Average active accounts rose 11% half-on-half to 1.29 million, even as total GGR fell.
“Players are gaming the system even within the regulated market,” Regulus noted.
This “reduces their overall levels of control and impacts customer satisfaction – leading to higher risk and higher leakage.”
Young adults remain disproportionately active, holding 23% of all accounts but generating only half the average monthly spend of older players (€37 vs. €78).
While this can be viewed as a protective effect of tighter deposit caps, it also reflects the shifting composition of the regulated base toward lower-spending mass-market players.
That bird has flown: Perhaps the most damning dynamic is fiscal. Regulus calculates that for regulated operators to compete effectively with black market sites, they must be able to spend about 20% of GGR on bonuses and promotions.
At a 30.5% tax rate, this equates to an effective 38% burden. At 34.2%, it rises to 43%, “the tipping point of the Laffer Curve,” they warned.
With another increase to 37.8% proposed for 2026, the situation may soon become untenable.
“The most valuable and the most vulnerable players in the Netherlands have gone offshore due to regulatory policy, while Dutch tax policy makes it almost impossible to get them back.”
Regulus concluded: “Policymakers cannot have their cake and eat it – tighten regulation and increase taxes, and get lower tax yields and regulatory avoidance.”
Truth and consequences: The Dutch data offers an unusually transparent case study because the KSA openly acknowledges both the decline and its probable causes.
This honesty provides regulators elsewhere – not least in the UK, where new affordability checks and deposit-limit trials are being debated – with a chance to study the full consequences of a sudden, system-wide clampdown.
The shock of the new: The headline lesson is not that consumer protection should be weakened, but that sequencing and proportionality matter.
The Netherlands imposed affordability checks, deposit limits and ad ban phases almost simultaneously, creating a policy shock from which the legal market has yet to recover.
By contrast, the UK’s Gambling Commission has pledged a gradual, data-driven rollout of affordability friction points; the Dutch experience shows why that caution is essential.
A second takeaway is the risk of fiscal overreach. The Dutch government’s assumption that higher taxes could offset revenue loss from safer-play measures has backfired, eroding both taxable GGR and player protection as leakage accelerates.
As Regulus warned: “The only people enjoying the benefits of Dutch policy are illegal operators.”
Not hiding away: To its credit, the KSA has not tried to spin the numbers. Its own report concluded that policy has “materially reduced losses per player and high-loss concentration,” but also that “the illegal market’s monetary share signals persistent leakage.”
That duality encapsulates the regulator’s dilemma: social protection gains achieved at the expense of fiscal and structural sustainability.
The Netherlands was meant to be the model of responsible liberalization. Instead, it has become a case study in how not to regulate.
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+More
Warning shot: Nevada’s Gaming Control Board (NGCB) has issued a memo warning licensees that “sports event contracts” are considered wagering under state law, reported SBC Americas. The NGCB further cautioned that violations in other jurisdictions or partnerships with noncompliant entities could lead to disciplinary action under the state’s Gaming Control Act. Recall, this week BetMGM’s Adam Greenblatt said the company would be putting its gaming licensing under threat were it to enter the sports-event prediction market space “anywhere.”
PrizePicks has been granted an interactive fantasy sports license by the New York State Gaming Commission, enabling it to resume operations in New York. After settling a legal dispute with the state in 2024, the company redesigned its peer-to-peer contests to comply with New York’s fantasy sports regulations. The state becomes the 16th jurisdiction to recognize its contests as skill-based games.
Betting syndicate arrest: Police have arrested a man in north London as part of a Metropolitan Police investigation into the collapse of a betting syndicate run by Rory Campbell, son of Alastair Campbell and Fiona Millar. The fund, which attracted over 50 investors contributing between £25,000 and £500,000 each, collapsed in December 2024, reportedly due to bad debts with Asian bookmakers. The arrested man, whose identity cannot be disclosed, was detained on September 9 on suspicion of fraud by false representation and later released on bail as police continue their inquiries.
Texas Re-Pete: Four Republican candidates for Texas attorney general have pledged to uphold the state’s gambling ban and oppose any expansion of wagering, including online betting, as the 2026 primary approaches. Lt Gov Dan Patrick’s decision to seek re-election also dims hopes for reform, with advocates conceding that casino and sports-betting proposals are unlikely to advance.
Australia: The Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission has released its 2025-26 Annual Plan, pledging to modernize digital infrastructure, strengthen intelligence-led oversight and expand harm-reduction initiatives. CEO Suzy Neilan said the regulator aims to be “bold, intelligence-led, data-driven and deeply connected to the communities we serve,” with projects including a five-year public awareness campaign and support for mandatory carded play reforms.
Half cut: Sweden’s Administrative Court has reduced a $500,000 anti-money laundering penalty against operator ATG to around $250,000, ruling that while due diligence failings occurred, they were not “systematic or repeated.” The original 2022 fine from Spelinspektionen stemmed from shortcomings in verifying customer funds.
Events
The Gaming in Germany Conference, which will take place November 11 in Berlin, has added several new speakers to its already impressive agenda. Sebastian Buchholz, head of licensing and market supervision for the GGL, will deliver the event’s keynote address.
What we’re reading
Insider trading on prediction markets is a feature, not a bug. From Prediction News.
Compliance & Legal Specialist – Johannesburg
Head of Compliance – Remote in UK
Safer Gambling Manager – London
Dictionary corner
Events, my dear boy, events: A Nevada federal judge has tossed Crypto.com’s request for an injunction to continue offering sports event contracts, drawing a sharp line between what counts as an “event” under the Commodity Exchange Act and what does not.
In a written decision issued Tuesday, US district judge Andrew P Gordon ruled that while a swap may relate to whether a sporting event occurs, it cannot extend to who wins the contest.
The opinion cited four dictionaries to distinguish “event” from “occurrence,” concluding that outcomes are not separate events under the law.
Crypto.com is now unable to offer its sports contracts in Nevada, despite the same judge granting a similar injunction to rival Kalshi in April.
Crypto.com’s case, built on the identical principle that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has “exclusive jurisdiction” over swaps, argued that the contracts should fall within federally regulated derivatives markets.
What happens tomorrow: Gordon wrote that while both terms describe something that happens, Congress’ use of two distinct words indicates different meanings.
Drawing on statutory interpretation and dictionary definitions, he said an event is a “happening of some significance,” like the Kentucky Derby, while the result, like who wins, is simply an outcome.
Accepting Crypto.com’s interpretation, he argued, would have “no limiting principle” and potentially classify all wagers as swaps.
Such a reading, Gordon said, would imply that every sportsbook or casino is illegally trading derivatives outside a designated contract market, an outcome Congress could not have intended.
The ruling therefore holds that courts, not just the CFTC, have authority to interpret the definition of swaps, a distinction that could have wide implications for other ongoing cases, including Kalshi’s.
Suspicious minds: On social media, Goodwin gaming partner Andrew Kim questioned Gordon’s approach, arguing that the statute “was written with political markets in mind” and that excluding outcomes from the definition of events risks distorting legislative intent.
The decision highlights continuing judicial division over the status of sports event contracts, as judges in Kalshi’s New Jersey case have expressed skepticism toward a narrower reading of swaps.
Legal experts believe the issue will hit the Supreme Court by 2027 or 2028.
Crypto.com, which has offered sports contracts since January and partners with fantasy operator Underdog in 16 states, is expected to appeal to the Ninth Circuit.
False start: Meanwhile, Robinhood’s proposed move into events contracts has opposition in Massachusetts already. State regulators have asked a court to reject the trading app’s bid to block local enforcement of gambling laws against its event-based trading products.
In a filing opposing Robinhood’s request for a preliminary injunction, the state argued that federal law does not preempt state control over gambling or sports-related contracts.
It called Robinhood’s preemption argument “smoke and mirrors” and cited court rulings upholding state oversight of wagering.
The brief also referenced the Nevada case against Crypto.com.
Like its prediction market brethren, Robinhood maintains its event-based products are federally regulated under the CFTC’s jurisdiction, not state gambling law.
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Cura-ciao?
Nothing to see here: In mid-September, the entire supervisory board of the Curaçao Gaming Authority (CGA) resigned. However, the CGA has reassured stakeholders that this resignation will not delay or disrupt the implementation of its new LOK (licensing, oversight and control) framework.
The CGA issued a public statement clarifying that responsibility for the regulator had already been transferred from the Ministry of Finance to the Ministry of Justice as of August 19.
As a result, the CGA maintained that licensing, supervision and enforcement activities would continue seamlessly despite the board changes.
The process to appoint new supervisory board members is underway. The CGA insisted the resignations are merely an administrative shift linked to broader government transitions, not a signal of instability or a halt of operations.
Meanwhile, the rollout of the LOK regime, first enacted in 2024, will continue as planned.
The CGA emphasized its ongoing commitment to upholding integrity and reliability in Curaçao’s gaming sector.
I see no ships: CGA’s PR and marketing advisor, Aideen Shortt, pushed back strongly against earlier media reports that claimed the board’s exit had empowered the prime minister to seize control of the regulator.
She called those stories “sensationalist” and “fake news,” reiterating that LOK rollout, licensing and compliance operations remained unaffected.
LOK, approved by Curaçao’s parliament in December, marks a significant shift from the island’s former “master license” system.
Under the new regime, operators must reapply for updated licences, aligning with the island’s intention to reduce its reputation as a gray-market hub.
In sum: Although Curaçao’s supervisory board resigned, the CGA maintains that regulatory reforms – especially the LOK system – will proceed without interruption, and leadership is in place to bridge the transition period.
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Calendar
Oct 20-23: IAGR, Toronto
Oct 22: EGR Summit, London
Nov 11: Gaming in Germany, Berlin
Nov 18: Sustainable Gambling Conference, BrusselS
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